Macroeconomic policy began to tone

 China issued the third quarter Thursday, macroeconomic data, the academic community and media attention. The day after that on Wednesday night, state media reported news of China's State Council executive meeting, revealed the government's latest macro-economic judgments and policy preferences. careful observer that the Chinese government's latest policy statement, released after the actual macroeconomic data than the more intriguing.
economic data released Thursday showed that China's economy continues to rebound .9 added value of industrial enterprises accelerate on rising Third-quarter gross domestic product, GDP growth reached 8.9%. Meanwhile, in the automotive and housing-related spending, led in September to keep consumption strong. Excluding price factors, the first three quarters of actual consumption growth rate is 17%. In addition, fixed assets investment to continue its rapid growth, price levels decline narrowed, the export decline continues to converge.
can be judged by the macro data, the establishment of China's economic rebound, the annual completion of It is optimistic about the judgments made on the macroeconomic, the Chinese government's macroeconomic policy has started to tone. domestic public opinion, noted that the State Council executive session the focus of regulatory content. This is the first time the State Council to inflation has put the policy first. perhaps in order to avoid the strong market response and reduce the level of the residents concerns on inflation, the Government has no direct emphasis on inflation, but rather euphemistically that to The fact is that the amount of inflation fighting policy in advance.
Previously, scholars have done heated debate on inflation expectations, the Chinese government anti-inflation economic growth in just the right balance between too uncertain, and macro data releases in the third quarter, the controversy seems to have the answer, that is, inflation as the primary task of economic work next year.
due to overcapacity, PPI and CPI data has been negative year on year, inflation is still no. but based on this year's high-speed credit and money supply, academic and the market price expectations are not optimistic. In recent months, CPI and PPI chain indicators have shown positive growth, of which the chain CPI was flat in July after the data, August, September has shown a rise in consumer prices this year indicates that Data will soon be the turning point, into positive growth. Once this indicator is positive, the community has direct experience price increases will be enhanced. If the residents expect sharp price increases, it will act to form buying groups to accelerate the price increases, thus achieve self-realization of inflation, that is, from the expected inflation rate, inflation becomes real.
fact, inflation is expected to have a certain impact on the market decision, which was most obvious asset markets. six months, inflation expected to drive housing prices have been skyrocketing, causing the average consumer has been unable to buy housing, and consumer prices should the sudden start, will further intensify social contradictions.
Clearly, the economic rebound, the effective control of prices, is bound to become the first choice policy. In the real inflation has not been formed before the intervention of inflation expectations, and then change the people's psychological expectations, after all, a flexible policy options.
my earlier comments about the Chinese is not easy to withdraw from the stimulus, because monetary policy faced with the dilemma. more pragmatic approach is to fine-tune the credit policy, credit supply to slow down to avoid sudden braking investment.
for the market, changing expectations, more meaningful than change the policy itself. From point of view, the first policy change the tone, and then shot policy instruments, the effect will be much better. It's like a fast moving vehicle, even if the change of direction, but also transferred a large Waner, otherwise it will lose the balance. Judging from such as interest rates, reserve adjustments and other restrictive policies during the year does not appear, but the central bank in the money market, or more frequent open market operations.