Matching
cattle livestock technician China eighth child
matching means cattle herd, the cattle breeding goals according to plan most suitable for cows bulls, or choose the most suitable for the Bulls cows for mating to produce offspring of superior genotypes. Different matching, have different effects.
a quality matching the quality of matching is to consider mating
both quality and contrast matching. According to election both the similarities and differences with the quality, the quality of matching can be divided into homogeneous and heterogeneous optional optional.
1, homogeneous matching: is to choose the appearance, performance, or other economic traits similar to the excellent public cows mating. Its purpose is to obtain similar quality offspring with parents in order to consolidate and strengthen their good traits. homogenous main function is to stabilize the optional fine characteristics of cattle, increasing the number of homozygous genotypes, but also homogeneous combination may increase the frequency of harmful genes, to fix the shortcomings of both parents, resulting in decreased adaptability and viability. it is necessary to strengthen the selection, strictly out of poor individuals, to improve the feeding and management, to improve the homogeneity of the effect of matching .
2, heterogeneous matching: is to choose the appearance, performance, or other economic traits of different outstanding public and cow mating. Its purpose is to choose good characters with different mating male cows, with different advantages , access to both parents, good quality offspring. heterogeneous optional role is integrated by recombinant advantage of parents or offspring to improve the quality of some individuals to enrich the fine cattle in the selected character variation. In breeding practice, As long as there is some variation in cattle, the method can be used to improve the heterogeneous quality of matching, and in a timely manner to be fixed into the homogeneous matching.
Second, genetic matching is based on genetic matching
mating genetic relationships of both sides matching. by matching degree of relatedness of both near and far, is divided into inbreeding (referred to as inbreeding) and non-inbred (referred to as non-inbred). is generally believed that less than 5 on behalf of the public might be related cow is called inbreeding mating, otherwise known as non-inbred. From the perspective of genetic analysis of a large group under certain conditions, groups of gene frequencies and genotype frequencies from generation to generation should be able to maintain a relative balance If the bottom two generations of the same environmental conditions, performance in the number of mean and standard deviation are substantially the same. However, if it is not random mating, and replace them with matching, would break the balance. elected among individuals with genetic the genetic relationship between higher degree of random mating is inbreeding when, less than the extent of random mating is the hybrid.
three matching points should be noted
1, each cattle farm to be worked out on a regular basis cattle breeding objectives consistent with the matching program, paying particular attention to and prevent inbreeding depression.
2, on the basis of the survey analysis, for each cow its own characteristics and choose the good with the Bulls, that is, said that, with the Bulls must be descendants of tests, and milk production, milk fat, appearance, or select the index of breeding value than cows.
3, after the effect of each option should be promptly analyzed and summarized, and continuously improve the selection with the effect of the work.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Boer goat breeding law
Boer goat breeding law
livestock technician sub
one eighth of China, early sexual maturity with age, with appropriate
male and female lambs after birth, there is the age of first estrus puberty, usually called sexual maturation, secondary sex characteristics have emerged at this time, to produce mature germ cells (sperm or eggs), with the ability to reproduce, but not for immediate breeding. Boer goat female lamb puberty is generally 6 - 8 months of age, body weight reached 40% -60 of the sheep%. ram is 4 months old, having sex, such as the Pa Kua, to discharge sperm. but because of the public, when the ewes reached sexual maturity has not yet fully developed reproductive organs mature and early mating on their own and are detrimental to growth and development of future generations. Therefore, the early Boer goat ewes with normal or above the age of 10 months, beginning with ram more than 12 months of age.
II, estrus < br> Boer goats for the early and multiple estrous animals. puberty is usually 6-8 months of age, estrus season significantly. In the spring and autumn temperatures suitable and adequate forage season, the relative concentration of heat, summer and very little estrus. estrous cycle 19-24 days, average 21 days, estrus duration of 24-48 hours, 30-40 hours of ovulation begin after estrus. lactating ewes after weaning to estrus 7-10 days. ewes mainly for heat : excited anxiety, crying, constantly wagging tail, frequent urination, Pa Kua other ewes, loss of appetite, swelling of the vulva was congestive red tide, vaginal relaxation and the secretion of mucus, and sometimes flow from the vulva. abnormal heat, due to malnutrition, feeding and management mutation or environmental conditions, improper reasons. common are the following:
1, quiet heat: the lack of estrogen secretion, the lack of apparent heat in heat performance, but on the ovarian follicles mature and ovulate.
2, short oestrus: oestrus period is very short, little attention or miss the breeding period.
3, intermittent heat: ewes estrus very long time, and intermittent heat, malnutrition often occurs in early spring ewe .
three identified
estrus in goats breeding work; heat identification is a very important part. identification purpose is to detect estrous ewes, breeding or artificial insemination in the right time to master, to prevent mismatch with reduced leakage rate of conception rate and litter size. boer goat in heat 3 methods identified are:
1, external observation: is the common method of identification of ewes in heat, mainly from the observation of the sheep external performance and mental state to determine. Boer goat ewes in estrus showed obvious excitement when the anxiety, loss of appetite, rumination stop, loudly chirping, wag, vulva and vaginal redness, swelling, relaxation, and a small amount of discharge or outflow mucus.
2, vaginal examination method: This is a more accurate identification of estrus. by opening Zhi checks vaginal mucosa, secretions and changes in the cervix to determine the heat or not. vaginal examination, the first ewes Baoding good, clean vulva, and then open Zhi device cleaning, disinfection, coated with lubricant, the inspectors left open Zhi Wang held devices, closed the front door slowly inserted from the shade, gently open the front, check with a flashlight vagina internal changes. When you find the vaginal mucous membrane congestion, red, bright surface moist, transparent mucus exudation, the cervix is congestion, relax, open, with mucus out, they can be as heat. checked and gently folded open Zhi device out.
3, try love Law: Sooner or later every 1 or 2 times a regular situation will test the ram into the ewe group. try to smooth the situation location, easy to observe and out of estrus ewes. When the test conditions rams into the ewes group, the staff do not cry, may be appropriate to drive sheep group, the ewes can not crowded together. When you find love again with the nose to the olfactory ram or sheep hoof to tease Mother sheep, sheep and even back to the Pa Kua, and ewes standing immobile or active when close to the ram, this is the estrous ewes ewes. At this point, to immediately isolate the heat to prepare for breeding ewes. test time of 1 hour the situation is appropriate.
IV and timely determination of ovulation time Boer goat breeding
mostly ovulation late in estrus, 90% of young sheep in estrus 30 hours after the start of ovulation .75 % -85% of ewes in estrus by the middle of 40 hours or so after the start of ovulation. Based on the data, the general optimum breeding time in estrus before the end of 5-8 hours, or an average of 30-35 hours after estrus beginning to start breeding, young sheep slightly earlier, slightly delayed by the sheep production. In addition, the situation according to the needs of estrus, estrus sheep long duration, can be re-interval of 5-10 hours with 1.
livestock technician sub
one eighth of China, early sexual maturity with age, with appropriate
male and female lambs after birth, there is the age of first estrus puberty, usually called sexual maturation, secondary sex characteristics have emerged at this time, to produce mature germ cells (sperm or eggs), with the ability to reproduce, but not for immediate breeding. Boer goat female lamb puberty is generally 6 - 8 months of age, body weight reached 40% -60 of the sheep%. ram is 4 months old, having sex, such as the Pa Kua, to discharge sperm. but because of the public, when the ewes reached sexual maturity has not yet fully developed reproductive organs mature and early mating on their own and are detrimental to growth and development of future generations. Therefore, the early Boer goat ewes with normal or above the age of 10 months, beginning with ram more than 12 months of age.
II, estrus < br> Boer goats for the early and multiple estrous animals. puberty is usually 6-8 months of age, estrus season significantly. In the spring and autumn temperatures suitable and adequate forage season, the relative concentration of heat, summer and very little estrus. estrous cycle 19-24 days, average 21 days, estrus duration of 24-48 hours, 30-40 hours of ovulation begin after estrus. lactating ewes after weaning to estrus 7-10 days. ewes mainly for heat : excited anxiety, crying, constantly wagging tail, frequent urination, Pa Kua other ewes, loss of appetite, swelling of the vulva was congestive red tide, vaginal relaxation and the secretion of mucus, and sometimes flow from the vulva. abnormal heat, due to malnutrition, feeding and management mutation or environmental conditions, improper reasons. common are the following:
1, quiet heat: the lack of estrogen secretion, the lack of apparent heat in heat performance, but on the ovarian follicles mature and ovulate.
2, short oestrus: oestrus period is very short, little attention or miss the breeding period.
3, intermittent heat: ewes estrus very long time, and intermittent heat, malnutrition often occurs in early spring ewe .
three identified
estrus in goats breeding work; heat identification is a very important part. identification purpose is to detect estrous ewes, breeding or artificial insemination in the right time to master, to prevent mismatch with reduced leakage rate of conception rate and litter size. boer goat in heat 3 methods identified are:
1, external observation: is the common method of identification of ewes in heat, mainly from the observation of the sheep external performance and mental state to determine. Boer goat ewes in estrus showed obvious excitement when the anxiety, loss of appetite, rumination stop, loudly chirping, wag, vulva and vaginal redness, swelling, relaxation, and a small amount of discharge or outflow mucus.
2, vaginal examination method: This is a more accurate identification of estrus. by opening Zhi checks vaginal mucosa, secretions and changes in the cervix to determine the heat or not. vaginal examination, the first ewes Baoding good, clean vulva, and then open Zhi device cleaning, disinfection, coated with lubricant, the inspectors left open Zhi Wang held devices, closed the front door slowly inserted from the shade, gently open the front, check with a flashlight vagina internal changes. When you find the vaginal mucous membrane congestion, red, bright surface moist, transparent mucus exudation, the cervix is congestion, relax, open, with mucus out, they can be as heat. checked and gently folded open Zhi device out.
3, try love Law: Sooner or later every 1 or 2 times a regular situation will test the ram into the ewe group. try to smooth the situation location, easy to observe and out of estrus ewes. When the test conditions rams into the ewes group, the staff do not cry, may be appropriate to drive sheep group, the ewes can not crowded together. When you find love again with the nose to the olfactory ram or sheep hoof to tease Mother sheep, sheep and even back to the Pa Kua, and ewes standing immobile or active when close to the ram, this is the estrous ewes ewes. At this point, to immediately isolate the heat to prepare for breeding ewes. test time of 1 hour the situation is appropriate.
IV and timely determination of ovulation time Boer goat breeding
mostly ovulation late in estrus, 90% of young sheep in estrus 30 hours after the start of ovulation .75 % -85% of ewes in estrus by the middle of 40 hours or so after the start of ovulation. Based on the data, the general optimum breeding time in estrus before the end of 5-8 hours, or an average of 30-35 hours after estrus beginning to start breeding, young sheep slightly earlier, slightly delayed by the sheep production. In addition, the situation according to the needs of estrus, estrus sheep long duration, can be re-interval of 5-10 hours with 1.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Asian television network Discovery
Mythbusters
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serious cases
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Mythbusters
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giant comet exploration focus: after the impact: Episode 1 (March 17)
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Rugby World Civilization turtles recorded
people (March 19)
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Encyclopedia power SAR
weapons: grenades (March 20)
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serious cases Night Live
vicious: the cult leader (March 21)
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Mythbusters Mythbusters: Speed Camera (March 22)
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historical mystery historical mystery: the Roman Arena (March 23)
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Tiger's roar: The next set (March 25)
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primitive world civilization recorded
Quest: Sullivan family (March 26)
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Encyclopedia power SAR
weapons: firearms (March 27)
fire: the oldest known to man, the most terrible weapons. It can destroy cities, melting machine and break positions. We will take you review the history of war, witnessed how the ancient Greeks to destroy the enemy fleet lit water; incendiary bombs during World War II Tokyo, arousing the fire; napalm forever in the annals of what became one of the Vietnam War picture . We will see how to fire a weapon to attack a frightening weapons of mass destruction, and burned increasingly popular, more and more fierce, more and longer - from the production of a simple the Tate - the murder of Rabbi green cards have been in the past four decades, it is still chilling, but also obsession. but Manson himself never killed a man, he was abetting committed by young men and women came from middle class unimaginable evil. judicial psychiatrist Michael Stone and Manson doctor will talk to the two disciples to understand the instigation of his ability: the nickname Barbara Hoyt victims. had to Manson and his justice the most powerful text Sente Bu Liao Gan West, will review Manson and his motivation survey. Given their level of evil Stone, a doctor will investigate why Manson would have instigated such a remarkable ability to hh and why his name has remained so afraid of people.
scientific frontier of new technology coming
II: 30 sets (29 March Japan)
axis Anna Joy will visit the concept of factory, where she found a car and press the button will be transformed into a racing simulator, and another car were transformed into a disco. London Aquarium has a new bright spot. but without feeding the fish, because it is charged to maintain a completely rely on artificial intelligence and has a hand Every shot is eyesight! by embedding microchips in golf to provide immediate feedback, so golf game inventors from new. Anna Joy will find a taste of wine pre-trial system, wine machine. high accuracy is sufficient to track only a centimeter-sized space junk!
historical mystery historical mystery
: 1906 San Francisco earthquake Secret (March 30)
1906 �� 4 �� 18 5 morning When 13 points, a devastating earthquake struck the San Francisco earthquake and subsequent .7.8 the fire caused more than half the population makes the forty million people homeless, causing billion dollars worth of economic losses, there was a geological fault up to three hundred miles of the rupture zone, from San Juan Batista until Mendocino angle. But in this incident behind little-known statistics, there are even more shocking scandal: cheat death the number and try to cover up the losses caused by the earthquake is the main reason. a detailed analysis of use of modern technology the process of the incident, which reveals a huge geological fault rupture zone is to tear the city to form a devastated destruction path. This is the most studied earthquakes in history, especially about its destructive power, which is perhaps Because of this, so as to reduce the 1989 ���������� the devastating earthquake.
focus
explore the history of Singapore: Raffles Foundation (March 31)
Stamford Raffles will account who arrived in Singapore's case, Sir, and tell the story of the birth of Singapore and the height of the British Empire before it has experienced pain. in anticipation of the Singapore will emerge as an important trading port, Raffles trying to implement a free trade hub of trade shifted to the Singapore. but to make money scams, opium and wine monopoly, secret societies and other drawbacks, so this tiny battered, Singapore City, the jurisdiction of the government for not getting dirty and violent. However, with the Suez Canal opening, Singapore is becoming truly international port, no longer forced to rely on regional trade. This change makes the British Empire began to pay more attention to Singapore, to classify it as their colony. through the application part of the jurisdiction and continue to solve social problems, Singapore is becoming increasingly stable, Raffles's vision is becoming reality. But Singapore is also quietly sprouting seeds of a recession, because the new arrival of goods and people, but also brought new ideas - these thought in the twentieth century will have a profound impact on Singapore.
Mythbusters: Grenade hero (March 1)
this episode to be validated three rumors from , the Internet and show fans! in Hollywood, Adam and Jamie will act as a back hand grenades hero, proved responsive to the action star can escape the explosion protection of other actors. At the same time, Cali, Grant and Tory will be used Diet Coke and Mentos on the Internet rumors of the > Unsolved History: Hitler's bunker (March 2)
Hitler's bunker, we will go to the site - since January 1945 after he never left the shelter. the Soviet Red Army's heavy artillery, the Berlin wall collapsed and the most recent water seepage accident, failed to destroy the bunker .1990, the workers accidentally discovered a bunker had never known annex - an area of fifteen hundred square feet in the basement, designed for Prime Minister of the SS drivers to use. The workers also found a large color mural, production of compact, vivid images, with many historical allusions. But just shortly after the accident found that, despite the opposition's chief archaeologist, the city The Government closed the bunker. Exploration Focus
death Pyramid: Ancient unsolved murder (March 3)
victims are very young - some as teens, but also the largest twenties. If they live in today, should be in high school or university. But then, they have a battle-hardened warrior, and who are everywhere the scars of battle, but in the end, they got brave and still could not save himself. a thousand years ago They died of torture, and some throat was cut, and some skull was shattered, as well as the body was mutilated. a few centuries later, archaeologists excavated them both for the joy of this great discovery and excited at the same time also the scene of horror shock. excavated archaeological sites in Peru, the Mummy remains mostly buried in a grave in an orderly manner, but this discovery is very different - in a waka called de la Luna ( Moon pyramids), the giant pyramid, seventy skeletons lay a muddy mess on the square, apparently because of violence caused by the sudden death. archaeologist and team try to find hot ʷ�ٷ�the reasons for this tragedy. Why do these Peruvians would be subjected to such a terrible fate? they find the answers will shock the scientific community - Molash ancient civilization was one of the most brilliant civilization, and this series will not reveal its viewers known dark side, so we have witnessed this from the bottom of ancient unsolved murder.
A Xuke Long infanticide mystery (March 4)
Israeli archaeologists are exploring the ancient city ruins Xu Kelong Ah, but They have discovered a terrible truth: one hundred newborn abandoned in a Roman skeleton public bathroom drain. Who killed the baby Ah Xu Kelong City? in the end is why? This series will show This has been gathering dust for nearly two years of unsolved murder investigation - this is a about sex, the story of death and infanticide. In order to solve the mystery, the audience will visit the archaeologists discovered this phenomenon and Ross Worth Larry Tagg , listen to them about the Roman period the phenomenon of prostitution and infanticide. Roman historian Eleanor Scott Tom Mackintosh and infanticide will provide background information on the case. And the other two criminologists Patricia Smith and Marina Fellman statement will make the story turn of the unexpected. They apply in the case of modern criminal investigation techniques, such as the latest DNA testing technology. Their study concludes that the dissolute Roman added a vivid life comments. This series shows the use of advanced technology and computer image of the real painting technique to play, the audience back to the dark center of Roman culture: a full of slaves, prostitution and infanticide ugly world.
world civilization recorded < br> Malaysia's new director selection: Organ Dreams (March 5)
as a high school history teacher Leonard Desai Silva is also a pipe organ enthusiast. He wanted to be the first in the famous Kuala Lumpur Petronas Twin Towers Symphony Hall organ solo in the Malaysian performing. This program will track Leonard's personal experience, from Penang, he struck up with the old organ to play today he commanded the most complex in Southeast Asia of a modern organ. organist, Mozart was called have been familiar with classical, jazz and traditional Malaysian style, the various tracks, he wanted to become a highly complex organ that everyone loved and enjoyed a modern instrument.
new director selection Malaysia: Muslim circumcision (March 5 )
at Muslim circumcision was originally meant to celebrate a special ceremony and group scenes, but in recent years, this tradition has gradually disappeared. Hajji Cavalli is a circumcision division, exclusively restricted to the traditional circumcision . He is one of the few remaining circumcision division in Malaysia, is one of a great man in their village. Hadji Cavalli lived in villages in Perak, they intend to resume this year as mass circumcision ceremony held at the boys. And In another place, Dr. Ge is the local search Ensinger a doctor for his circumcision device invented by the medical profession and the praise. This non-invasive surgical instruments and completely changed the modern circumcision, from the Kuala Lumpur, clinics, who have been tsunami-stricken Aceh to the orphanages and relief groups, can benefit from. This program will account Zahn Alhaji Dr Cavalli and the ancient story - the two very different characters will prevails, for the boy's rite of Muslims in Malaysia to make its own contribution.
Encyclopedia power SAR
weapons: fighter (March 6)
We will review the historical development of fighter planes - it is The most comprehensive modern warfare, the most terrible weapons. by exploring engine power, wings, maneuverability and ejection systems development, we will show the audience, jet fighters how to rule the land and sky.
serious cases Night Live < br> vicious: Episode 16 (March 7)
the most intelligent serial killer is often the most dangerous criminals. �����ɿ���, Rafter, all show a genius-level IQ. uncommon talents, so that they kill for years or even decades are still at large. evil and Where is the intersection of wisdom? with early brain development on the latest scientific discovery, Stone doctor for Kemper, Kaczynski and Kraft were analyzed one by one to discover why these killers commit crimes by his reckoning.
Mythbusters Mythbusters: Speed Camera (March 8 Japan)
to clarify two of widespread rumors about the speed, Adam and Jamie will personally into battle, challenging the natural enemies of motorists - speed camera. The result: This program is becoming a fun bunch and engaging action-adventure film, especially exciting is that wonderful scene after another express train. At the same time, Cali, Tory and Grant will verify that a mysterious explosives.
historical mystery history mystery: the assassination of Adolf Hitler (March 9)
If nearly a year in advance of Nazi Germany's surrender, that is, in July 1944 instead of May 1945, then what? in Nazi concentration camps and the bombing of the bitter suffering German cities, whether there will be millions of lives from being trampled on? warring parties, including the United States and other countries, will reduce the number of soldiers casualties? July 20, 1944, the German General Staff of the number of IDF officers detonated a bomb tried to assassinate their leader and his followers to overthrow Nazi Germany to end the war as soon as possible. This from the most famous assassination, a perfect plan, just as like clockwork, but it ended in failure. in the end, why? mystery on Hitler's life saved. That day is very hot, the windows are open - which weakened the power of so many bombs, not only saved Hitler, but also saved his senior generals. Some people think that it is thick rubber wooden tables saved Hitler as an officer moved the bomb the far side of the table. that what is the difference? few centimeters away from the bombs so far, really can change the course of history? We will show the audience answer these questions.
exploration focus
save Ronald Reagan b: 1 set (March 10)
1981 �� 3 30, President Ronald Reagan out of the Hilton Hotel in Washington, DC, ready to enter a waiting black limousine to pick him. hear the cries of a few reporters, the president turned around and waved to them - he never snub the media. When the press secretary Jim Brady stepped forward to attempt to control the situation when sound of a loud noise came six. agent Jerry Parr instinctively presidential limousine in advance. to accelerate the car left, the president cough blood and blame Parr severing his rib. Parr decisive, direct the driver to open the command to George Washington Hospital. Local them who do not know, Jim Brady has been down in a pool of blood, a bullet hit him in the head, arms raised in the President to pay tribute to the media At that moment, the other a potentially fatal bullet entered his body and left in his lungs, only a thin three inches away from the heart. Լ��Ƥ���� award-winning film adapted from the article vividly describes the President arrived George Washington Hospital after what happened in the end - he accepted the challenge like a nightmare of surgery, and finally found that he died almost sinking, and the mystery of the historical process of change from a bullet.
save Ronald Reagan b: 2 set (March 11)
1981 �� 3 30, Washington, DC, President Ronald Reagan out of the Hilton hotel, ready to enter a waiting black limousine to pick him. hear the cries of a few reporters, President turned around and waved to them - he never snub the media. When the press secretary Jim Brady stepped forward to attempt to control the situation, the sound of a loud noise coming from the six. agent Jerry Parr instinctively presidential limousine in advance . to accelerate the car left, President of the cough blood and blame Parr severing his rib. Parr decisive command to open the driver directly to George Washington Hospital. Local them who do not know, Jim Brady has been down in a pool of blood, a bullet hit him in the head, arms raised in the President to pay tribute to the media the moment, the other a potentially fatal bullet entered his body and stay in his lungs, only a thin three inches away from the heart. Լ��Ƥ���� award-winning film adapted from the article vividly describes the President arrived at George Washington hospital in the end what happened - he accepted the challenge like a nightmare of surgery, and finally found that he died almost sinking, and the mystery of the historical process of change from a bullet.
Malaysia recorded the world's civilization, new director selection: Lion King (March 12)
Xiaofei Hong is the world's top chefs master of one of the lion. Although vegetable origin, but their tireless efforts to make this traditional Chinese art of transforming itself into a highly ornamental competitive sports, and personal teaching a number of lion experts from East and West. Xiao Master particularly busy now, because Malaysia is hosting lion sector, the world's attention focused on Malaysia, a number of powerful enemies are lurking around the relationship from Johor Temple Lion Dance, as they have repeatedly won the world championship. This program will be with the film Master and his team of Shaw, see how they carefully prepared for this event some breathtaking stunts difficult. They will regain the world championship aspirations to do?
Malaysia's new director selection: Inheritance of wood (March 12)
centuries, the traditional horse wood has been used to master the world's most high-quality tropical hardwood, creating a unique work fine wood construction and wood jewelry. But with the modernization of Malaysia's sustained rapid development and continued construction of the skyscraper, the decorative wood and the superb craftsmanship has been gradually diminishing. This program will be shot with two characters, they are about to disappear for the preservation of the craft and a tireless bustle. In the center of the hinterland of Terengganu, one hundred and eight million years old the Soviet Union led a three generations old wood shop, tried to make this art to continue to pass down the door. At the same time, the design architect Raja Bahrain traditional wood construction and due to a reputation, but he wanted to traditional wood carving art and its complex and refined into the modern architecture into the design.
power SAR
weapons Encyclopedia: sly Ray (March 13)
dangerous and also has a strong ability to adapt to deception on the battlefield can not see mine killer. recent years, they let the enemy numerous casualties, and total defeat in the psychological morale of the enemy, so that all areas have become unsafe. We will review the global conflict for hundreds of years history, tracing the ancestors of mine how the sly repeatedly perform outstanding service, innovation and related technology also investigated to reveal the latest and most sly is what mine looks like.
serious cases
vicious Night Live: Revenge of evil (March 14)
revenge is the most One common motive. The more unreasonable the more dangerous killers, they will not be satisfied with killing the object of their hatred. Once they think of any enemies who would kill one after another. Mad Dog family. Why did they choose violence, revenge? through this sketch a few murderers in psychology, Dr. Stone describes the science of revenge, and find their motive may be exposed to the clues.
Mythbusters
Mythbusters: Grenade hero (March 15)
this episode to be validated three rumors from In Hollywood, Adam and Jamie will act as a back hand grenades hero, proved responsive to the action star can escape the explosion protection of other actors. At the same time, Cali, Grant and Tory will be used properly Diet Coke and Man think of the Internet rumors of the Nazi (March 16)
about thirty thousand Nazi war criminals fled Europe after World War II. in the history of how exactly the biggest miscarriage of justice occur? the movie Odessa, led by the German organization really exist? truth is often more dangerous than the well-known novels. When Clyde Snow, a famous archaeologist of Justice judge found in a cemetery in the bones of Brazil is notorious ; Auschwitz Angel of Death We will use modern technology to portrait-door Wrangler recover the bones, and frame by frame playback Mengele's evil life, from his youth to his fly was removed after the Europe, in Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. mystery like after the war Mengele fled to life has been miserable.
giant comet exploration focus: after the impact: Episode 1 (March 17)
sixty-five million years ago, dinosaurs Time for the end of a giant comet. Soon after, we may also follow suit. We do not know when it will happen, do not know and understand the impact a space where days. we know is that it will in one day - perhaps a thousand years later, perhaps tomorrow. It will mark the human end? In this new masterpiece, we will boldly predict the future of mankind. in the hypothetical impact, we will witness subsequent earthquakes, tsunamis and horrific scenes, and experience the very small number of surviving animals and humans under adverse conditions how to fight for survival. This is an absolutely terrible disaster. Earth obscured by the dust the sun into a global winter, leading to extinction around the world. the history of such disasters has been staged several times, and has since changed the course of evolution. but at the same time bring destruction, it is also a prerequisite for change and development . If there is no extinction of the dinosaurs, the human race might never have the opportunity to evolve. The new era is about to begin - this is the era of survival of the fittest - Humans will have to find a new location. film finally will end with the rise of a new human began to adapt to the new environment. In fact, they have even began to flourish.
giant Comet: after the impact: Episode 2 (March 18)
sixty-five million years ago, the age of dinosaurs due to a Giant comets and the end. Soon after, we may also follow suit. We do not know when it will happen, do not know and understand the impact a space where days. we know is that it will happen one day - perhaps a thousand years later, perhaps tomorrow. It will mark the human end? In this new masterpiece, we'll boldly predict the future of mankind. in the hypothetical impact, we will witness the subsequent earthquake , tsunamis and terrible sight, and experience the very small number of surviving animals and humans under adverse conditions how to fight for survival. This is an absolutely terrible disaster. obscured by the dust of the earth by the sun, into the world of winter, leading to extinction around the world. the history of such disasters has been staged several times, and has since changed the course of evolution. but at the same time bring destruction, it is also a prerequisite for change and development. If the dinosaurs did not extinct, the human race might never have the opportunity to evolve. The new era is about to begin - this is the era of survival of the fittest - Humans will have to find a new location. film finally will end with the rise of new, humans began to adapt to new environment. In fact, they have even began to flourish.
Rugby World Civilization turtles recorded
people (March 19)
series of programs about the protection of animals and human story. in India Kerala, a northern village, the villagers are going all out to protect their villages and their livelihoods, as the mouth of the sand mining industry posed a threat to them. In the past decade, they have been up the flood protection Rugby sea turtle nesting. protect this endangered animal, which they regarded as opposed to the destruction of their estuary, villages and the extension of the struggle of life. The series of programs will work with the rhythm of the village, revealing a species of this order and a group of people struggle to survive and expand.
Encyclopedia power SAR
weapons: grenades (March 20)
soldiers encountered fire suppression, and sometimes carry weapons to rely on, and perhaps tanks out of the way, perhaps the machine-gun fire, perhaps the aircraft or helicopter air strikes. At this moment, hand grenades and rocket propelled grenades to become a soldier's best friend. these weapons have exploded a powerful Ministry, while easy to carry and operate a small infantry units. a hundred dollars a rocket-propelled grenades to destroy a helicopter cost fifty million U.S. dollars; a precise targeting of the grenade can destroy a bunker; a suspended grenade launcher can Hong Ta house door.
serious cases Night Live
vicious: the cult leader (March 21)
despite their narcissistic and paranoid, and has undeniable charm, but usually do not personally violent cult leader. However, once they act, the results are often staggering. As many followers blindly, so they have the ability to give orders to achieve their most demagogic evil thoughts, no less than the harm the most heinous serial killer. By analyzing twentieth century, the three most deadly cult leader, Dr Stone will be investigated. was responsible for the prosecution of Charles Manson's text Sente Bu Liao West, will examine the case of the world's most amazing one, and depth of a notorious the inner world of a murderer.
Mythbusters Mythbusters: Speed Camera (March 22)
order to clarify the two widespread rumors about the speed, Adam and Jamie will be personally battle, challenging the natural enemies of motorists - speed camera. The result: This program is becoming a fun bunch, spectacular action adventure, particularly exciting is that wonderful scene after another express train. At the same time, Cali, Tory and Grant will verify that a mysterious explosives.
historical mystery historical mystery: the Roman Arena (March 23)
exclusively for the Roman people to watch bloody sports of the Roman Need arena called the ancient architecture. ancient Romans devoted a whole their accomplishments in engineering, so that the Roman arena as a great place to show the cruel entertainment. Roman arena completed in AD 80, was held to celebrate the completion of The wrestling match lasted one hundred days, fighting animal performances, public performances, and the death penalty. Modern Gladiator performance group and a number of computer engineers and historians using virtual reality technology to create simulation model of the Roman arena, we will crack on We will also try to study on the biggest mysteries of the Roman Arena: This arena is huge and irrigation has been to simulate the battle into the pool? said to be in thousands of dollars. This is just to please the emperor and made up a story? If there really sea, and that is how it carried out? Roman arena will not leak it? is the arena the day before the day after the naval battle game show, it is possible to ? scare effect, it can take this opportunity to launch a raid to seize and kill prey. but the tiger's roar that is all? We are not missing anything - beyond our understanding of some of the important information? biological sound academic scientists are carrying a , can spread a long distance, through the tall, dense forests or mountains, causing the body to produce an instinctive physical reaction - fear. This is the Tiger's secret weapon, it is a potentially deadly special weapons, so America both military and space programs have invested heavily in order to study the mysterious power of shares. The series of programs will be those who walk in with the film's most cutting-edge field of bio-acoustics scientists who will verify the latest theories and break all kinds of doubts. whether the roar of the tiger extraordinary power? It will be their prey, and what impact? This infrasound will also affect human?
Tiger's roar: The next set (March 25)
said to the roar of the tiger prey deters and the deterrent effect, it can take this opportunity to launch a raid to seize and kill prey. but the tiger's roar that is all? We are not missing anything - beyond our understanding of some of the important information? biological sound academic Scientists are carrying out a very strong, and can spread a long distance, through the tall, dense forests or mountains, causing the body to produce an instinctive physical reaction - fear. This is the Tiger's secret weapon, it is a potentially deadly special weapons, so U.S. military and space programs have invested heavily in both the mysterious power of the shares. The series with the film program will be those who walk in the forefront of biological scientists in the field of acoustics, they will verify the latest theories and break all kinds of doubts. tiger's roar whether the extraordinary power? It will be their prey, and what impact? This infrasound will also affect human?
primitive world civilization recorded
Quest: Sullivan family (March 26)
Bruce Parry will travel to Ethiopia to live together with the Sullivan family. For Suri tribe, the violence is a way of life, the most obvious is to stick battle between man and guns everywhere. Bruce will experience the Soviet Union in the family way of life, and the Romans, with them to drink blood, participate in ritual. As a Suri tribe, leaving scars on the body and the lips to wear mud plate is a symbol of the United States. Bruce family life in the final to Surrey there is a warm family tribe.
Encyclopedia power SAR
weapons: firearms (March 27)
fire: the oldest known to man, the most terrible weapons. It can destroy cities, melting machine and break positions. We will take you review the history of war, witnessed how the ancient Greeks to destroy the enemy fleet lit water; incendiary bombs during World War II Tokyo, arousing the fire; napalm forever in the annals of what became one of the Vietnam War picture . We will see how to fire a weapon to attack a frightening weapons of mass destruction, and burned increasingly popular, more and more fierce, more and longer - from the production of a simple the Tate - the murder of Rabbi green cards have been in the past four decades, it is still chilling, but also obsession. but Manson himself never killed a man, he was abetting committed by young men and women came from middle class unimaginable evil. judicial psychiatrist Michael Stone and Manson doctor will talk to the two disciples to understand the instigation of his ability: the nickname Barbara Hoyt victims. had to Manson and his justice the most powerful text Sente Bu Liao Gan West, will review Manson and his motivation survey. Given their level of evil Stone, a doctor will investigate why Manson would have instigated such a remarkable ability to hh and why his name has remained so afraid of people.
scientific frontier of new technology coming
II: 30 sets (29 March Japan)
axis Anna Joy will visit the concept of factory, where she found a car and press the button will be transformed into a racing simulator, and another car were transformed into a disco. London Aquarium has a new bright spot. but without feeding the fish, because it is charged to maintain a completely rely on artificial intelligence and has a hand Every shot is eyesight! by embedding microchips in golf to provide immediate feedback, so golf game inventors from new. Anna Joy will find a taste of wine pre-trial system, wine machine. high accuracy is sufficient to track only a centimeter-sized space junk!
historical mystery historical mystery
: 1906 San Francisco earthquake Secret (March 30)
1906 �� 4 �� 18 5 morning When 13 points, a devastating earthquake struck the San Francisco earthquake and subsequent .7.8 the fire caused more than half the population makes the forty million people homeless, causing billion dollars worth of economic losses, there was a geological fault up to three hundred miles of the rupture zone, from San Juan Batista until Mendocino angle. But in this incident behind little-known statistics, there are even more shocking scandal: cheat death the number and try to cover up the losses caused by the earthquake is the main reason. a detailed analysis of use of modern technology the process of the incident, which reveals a huge geological fault rupture zone is to tear the city to form a devastated destruction path. This is the most studied earthquakes in history, especially about its destructive power, which is perhaps Because of this, so as to reduce the 1989 ���������� the devastating earthquake.
focus
explore the history of Singapore: Raffles Foundation (March 31)
Stamford Raffles will account who arrived in Singapore's case, Sir, and tell the story of the birth of Singapore and the height of the British Empire before it has experienced pain. in anticipation of the Singapore will emerge as an important trading port, Raffles trying to implement a free trade hub of trade shifted to the Singapore. but to make money scams, opium and wine monopoly, secret societies and other drawbacks, so this tiny battered, Singapore City, the jurisdiction of the government for not getting dirty and violent. However, with the Suez Canal opening, Singapore is becoming truly international port, no longer forced to rely on regional trade. This change makes the British Empire began to pay more attention to Singapore, to classify it as their colony. through the application part of the jurisdiction and continue to solve social problems, Singapore is becoming increasingly stable, Raffles's vision is becoming reality. But Singapore is also quietly sprouting seeds of a recession, because the new arrival of goods and people, but also brought new ideas - these thought in the twentieth century will have a profound impact on Singapore.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Stock Market Watch March 4 (scroll broadcast)
[2009-3-4 8:51:58]
again last week, despite the A-share market crash, stock funds overall net worth has shrunk, but there is only slight decrease in the number of fund accounts, still remain high, as the issue of new funds pumping blood. the board on Tuesday the latest data released last week, the Fund account number 42500, maintained on a high at 40,000, only a slight decrease of 3.1% qoq, in which the number of new accounts for the 467 closed-end funds households, TA system with accounts, the funds generated numbers to 4.21 million. market analysis, A shares slump hit market confidence, the fund accounts, last week hit a new high of nearly a year after the fall, but all week 40000 this year is still a high number of new accounts will now issue a new fund-intensive to provide strong support. Statistics show that, as of last Friday, the Chinese A share total of 15 new funds are densely distributed on May 21, 2008 Funds will also be issued only after another new high, in addition to funds already received 9 approvals issued, the threshold issue. Last week the Chinese open-end fund performance differentiation, stock funds fell across the board, the Fund for the week fell more than more than Jiucheng 5%, bond funds over sixty percent of the gains across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.90% last week, cumulative, creating the biggest weekly drop this year.
[2009-3-4 8:52:28]
Finance Department and the Federal Reserve launched a short-term asset-backed securities lending facility plan that will meet the requirements of the part of the AAA asset-backed securities holders of the class to provide 200 billion U.S. dollars loan. the plan eventually to businesses and families to provide 1 trillion of loans . Federal Reserve to buy asset-backed securities is to improve the liquidity of the financial system and credit environment. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on March 3 in the Senate Budget Committee, said the key to economic recovery, the Government's ability to stabilize the financial markets. he considers necessary to introduce more programs to avoid 500 index is dropped past the 700 point mark. The Dow Jones index fell 37 points to close at 6726 points. intraday rebound to 6846 points. technology stocks fell 1.84 points, the Nasdaq index closed at 1321 points. Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 4.49 points, to close at 696.33 points, this is the first time since 1996 index fell below 700 points. to a record high in 2007 dollars, the S & P 500 fell 56%, the Dow Jones index fell by 53%. a U.S. analyst that the reference to bonds, U.S. stock valuations of about 600 points in the S & P 500 Index.
[2009-3-4 9:05:57]
Please pay attention today to follow up two
[2009 -3-4 9:07:55]
broader market in the U.S. stock market again today, this will remain under downward pressure shocks, disk is still the opportunity to stock performance, stock division will not change the situation, a rebound in the two shares
Comments 1): Tibet's Tin Road (600326)
material into two sessions, the focus of the development of Tibet
The two upcoming, can be expected that They tax rate increase is still 17% only Liu Yu 3 at the Second Session of the Eleventh CPPCC National Committee, attended the opening of the pre-said that the current level of interest rates appropriate, whether to continue cutting interest rates need to observe, it will depend primarily on economic data for some time. In order to ensure economic growth, 2008 Since September, the central bank has cut five times the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans of financial institutions. But this year, the central bank cut interest rates has not pressed the button. CPI for February the central bank will cut interest rates after the announcement, the market is full of anticipation and controversy. National CPPCC, China Merchants Bank Chairman Qin Xiao 3, also said that China has little room to cut interest rates. from the current position, the central bank cut interest rates in the short term is unlikely, and as open market operations has been strengthened Therefore, the focus of follow-up is still the central bank control on the open market, followed by the deposit reserve ratio.
[2009-3-4 9:13:38]
the face of the mainland this year, can a chorus of many senior officials in the Mainland, said economic growth this year could reach eight per cent are optimistic and believed that China should prevent deflation and keep the yuan rate stable.
Chinese Finance Minister Xie said in Beijing yesterday to attend the CPPCC and NPC two sessions, said that China's economic growth this year, said that the current policy in the implementation of all aspects, not only is the public investment, including tax breaks, the next steps will be taken into account the actual situation.
the People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Su Ning pointed out at the same occasion, the current China's overall economic functioning properly, is likely to recover in the first half, very confident of economic growth on the Mainland.
the People's Bank of China deputy governor Liu Yu said that this year's economic growth, Development is to maintain stable and rapid economic growth an important measure, the current remains to be seen whether the rate cut; and prevention of deflation is an important task of central banks, including China.
Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said that China's economy has maintained a positive growth, no recession, while the international market is shrinking for the Chinese foreign trade declined in February, but he is confident of China's import and export trade; but he also pointed out that China's imports and exports in February were higher than the decline in January.
he said that China is shrinking export performance is due to the international market, although some neighboring countries, the phenomenon of currency devaluation occurs, but the rate of RMB remained stable. He pointed out that the Ministry of Commerce is seriously some local governments to track and assess the effect of consumer vouchers now no national distribution plan.
Ministry of Industry and Information Minister Li pointed out that China's economic growth this year, He said that for the different stages of economic development, the Commission timely to implement tight monetary policy should maintain appropriate flexibility, it is necessary to prevent prices rising too fast, but also to prevent the economic ups and downs.
[2009-3-4 9:21 : 10]
U.S. stocks fell again on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 37.27 points to close at 6726.02 points, down 0.55%; Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 4.49 points to close at 696.33 points, or 0.64% ; the Nasdaq composite index fell 1.84 points to close at 1321.01 points, down 0.14%. Following the Dow Jones index fell below 7,000 points, the S & P 500 index since October 1996 fell below the 700 point mark for the first time mutual authentication between the two is that a new round of sell into the U.S. stock market surge has clearly started, the A-share market, since the downward trend in U.S. stocks have been well known to accelerate Powei, and market investors had anticipated, so critical juncture in the post below the impact of the A-share market is relatively limited, A shares adjusted pace will be more demand for the execution of its own, and now two sessions held on the occasion coincides with the oral Zapan is unlikely, the market will therefore be short-lived respite, continued weak shock consolidation
[2009-3-4 9:30:07]
basic flat broader market open today, indicating U.S. stock market was basically down to digest the news, there was initial stabilized the mean, although the rate of increase in disk not great, but the number of rising stocks fell more than today, the key is to smooth the amount of release.
[2009-3-4 9:32:12]
Although the GEM is hard to determine a specific launch date , but the mechanisms, including eight areas first GEM start planning has been clear.
yesterday, the CPPCC National Committee members, Chairman of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for Chen Dongzheng that GEM has been a matter of course, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is currently preparing to start work any time now. He said preparations for the GEM will never stop, even if the GEM to open, but also a process of continuous improvement.
It is reported that the GEM start planning a total of eight areas, including: regular posting, marketplace, resources, training, publicity and investor education, guidance and training of intermediaries to issue audit and listed on the settlement system for transactions, technology and market supervision system is ready to prepare. Among them, the rules of work release, IPO way for comments had been completed, follow-up also includes the prospectus and related rules comments, and those rules promulgated
[2009-3-4 9:36:54]
real estate stocks led the broader market's direction again, yesterday, in addition to reviews of Fiyta, the other one is the OCT , OCT walk yesterday not called steady in early trading today, a lot of performance to rapidly, today's highlight is the real estate bounce back, the other heavyweights did not hold back, but leave a small gap
[2009-3-4 9 : 37:29]
today to follow up two 2 Please pay attention to
[2009-3-4 9:38:43]
to the end of last month, SDIC Electric Power listed companies (600,886), the country voted a new set (601,918) (601,918) has just released outside unable to complete the restructuring plan announced essential elements required.
just a week, the country's latest restructuring plan to vote on power leap off the paper today. restructured and another to give up the national vote earlier resumption of a new set of red midday after the daily limit on the contrarian, capital raising was robbed. SDIC Electric Power announced restructuring plan, opened the country to vote, Department of prelude to the integration of assets. Today, the country voted today opened the sealed power limit.
[2009-3-4 9:41:06]
According to Hong Kong, upgrade. According to sources, the birth of the current National People's Congress is expected since the founding of the largest government investment budget to address the global financial crisis and stimulate economic recovery as soon as possible. It is understood that the central government investment budget this year could surge over last year 4 times , the scale of over 700 billion yuan. The upcoming budget will be submitted to the NPC session.
top leadership has been determined to restart the proactive fiscal policy to stimulate the economy to achieve annual growth of about 8%. economy Observers pointed out that the so-called proactive fiscal policy, is through the expansion of fiscal expenditure and reduce fiscal revenue, to the ultimate effect of stimulating economic growth policy. In China's economic growth, financial tsunami, a significant reduction in external demand, exports have fallen sharply, while the consumer despite still maintain a continuous growth, but a short time is difficult to significantly increase its contribution to economic growth. Thus, the central expansion of investment is still the most important and to maintain growth effective means.
[2009-3-4 9:45:07]
5-day moving average of the pressing force depends on how much weight you want to continue performing U.S. stocks fell today to digest the impact of short-term breakthrough is still possible The best intraday trend is slightly adjusted, and then tapping on the ���� average. If out of this trend, our strategy is to start scaling out of positions in the three callback into
[2009-3-4 9:47: 15]
the depth of the financial crisis, the Chinese economy is facing unprecedented difficulties, policy, but after two sessions will be judged to implement policy rules and the New Deal a critical moment. We believe that China's macroeconomic policies in 2009 will focus on capital growth, expand domestic demand and improve the livelihood of the main line. We believe that the Ten hot will be a high degree of attention, including: expansion of investment, improve people's livelihood, private investment and stimulate consumption, employment, social security, tax reform, credit, price reform and regional cooperation. in front of some of the top ten policy of macroeconomic policy since last year extension, such as the expansion of investment, improve people's livelihood, stimulate consumption, social security and so on. We believe that the issue of local bonds, expanding employment, regional economic cooperation and other new policies need to pay close attention to.
Focus br> expand investment: If the first quarter of this year, China's economy continues to deteriorate, the government will further increase the government-led investment and expand efforts to stimulate domestic demand, the previously announced 4 trillion economic stimulus package may further expand the scale.
livelihood investment: total investment of people's livelihood will be over 900 billion yuan, an average of 3,000 billion per year.
private investment: securities Huanshui for SMEs will start a series of measures to support SME development.
stimulate consumption: government increased income from direct to reform income distribution system, improve the expectations of both disposable income and stimulate rural consumption is expected to launch, promote the consumption of hot consumer upgrade training to improve six aspects of the environment to stimulate consumer spending.
the expansion of employment: We expect the government will implement the expansion of employment development strategy, adhere to the upgrading of the structure and support to promote employment and entrepreneurship to coordinate, strengthen the employment policy and monetary, fiscal and industrial policy coordination; promoting entrepreneurship to improve employment, the implementation of urban and rural to expand the advantages of a job area.
Social Security Medical: improving the social insurance system, deepen the educational reform, and promote health care reform. the next 3 years, governments at all levels is expected to invest 850 billion yuan.
fiscal reform: fiscal and taxation system reform to speed up the implementation of structural tax to issue local government bonds.
credit Innovation: new deposits mainly for local lenders. At present, relevant departments of the central bank is leading the development of specific assessment methods, and will fully demonstrate and seek the views of all parties, based on this as soon as possible specific measures.
regional cooperation: through national and local level planning to start regional economic development, and then from the point, and to promote the development of the entire region.
price reform: implementation of the core of energy price reform to break the monopoly of a variety of industries, opening up more investment opportunities.
[2009-3-4 10:04:28]
yesterday, and our reviews of the OCT A Fiyta, two shares of upside momentum in today's rapidly opening rose more than 5 points, a great tendency to limit the impact. Let us wait and see!
[2009-3-4 10:07:22]
China Industry and Information Technology Minister Li said on Tuesday that the Government is related regulations to support the two smaller domestic telecom business, but no timetable for the publication of the Ordinance.
Li did not point out the relevant regulations in the specific details but said the content will have a bias. This means relative to the largest mobile operator China Mobile Ltd., the regulations related content will be more conducive China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited and China Telecom Corporation Limited.
analysts had said that Government may allow users to switch to China Mobile or China Telecom, China Unicom, after the service to retain their original number.
he said, the government released the third generation mobile phone (3G) license is a key step in the development of the telecommunications industry. Li said, China Mobile issued by the independent research and development based on domestic standard TD-SCDMA 3G license, China Mobile is committed to the government has encouraged the commercial use of TD-SCDMA, which will benefit the whole TD-SCDMA industry chain development.
[ ,],[great chance to again limit today. hope you continue to pay attention.
[2009-3-4 10:15:40]
still relatively rapid rebound in early trading, but the amount can not see the bounce effectively, so In the broader market may be washed up after the 2100 shock, but the early pattern of broad based stock has been formed, most of the stock rises more than the broader market. two effects is expected to begin opening in the disk radiation, the impact of today but also the success of the 5th line to see how the trend of the day.
[2009-3-4 10:18:34]
During the two sessions, the Ministry of Housing and Urban (the will not introduce any new recent real estate control policies.
Qi Ji, vice minister of the Ministry of Housing recently told CCTV said that taking initiative, through the promotion of housing sales at reasonable prices within the framework of regulations, where there are reasonable and conducive to support and encourage residents to housing consumption, should be given support. the next period of time, the Housing Ministry's main task will be fully grasp the State Council Document No. 131, referred to the implementation of various policy measures, some of the work group will also organized to check all over, Recently the Ministry of Rural Development will not be issued any new real estate regulation and control policy. or the impact of today's market trend showing a good start, opening one hour rose nearly 40 points, a firm point in 2100, and the current rally is still good, the recent rally to our investors a glimmer of hope. today is still the focus two income subject matter, including the people concerned about education and health sector.
[2009-3-4 10:27:01]
3 �� 2nd, we comment in the stock market in Tibet Mining Watch, the performance of super-good today. Deadline 10:25, the stock rose more than 8% of the maximum, become the OCT, Fiyta, subjects such as Daqing China is expected to limit the stocks
[2009-3-4 10:29:29]
continue today Please pay attention to follow-up two 3
[2009-3-4 10:30:59]
Yesterday, the CPPCC National Committee member, Health Minister Chen Zhu said that the final program of health care reform in the announced, level. If the public hospital is located in Beijing to participate in the pilot reform of the national public hospital initiative, countries will be encouraged. He disclosed that the state will choose some typical medium-sized city, but the specific choice and number of the city them medical services, essential drugs system construction. will change after the removal of drug addition hospitals must have a compensation mechanism, step by step process Daqing Huake
just comment, is expected to limit the list will be today, it really live up to expectations China Branch of Daqing, opened less than an hour once the daily limit.
[2009-3-4 10:36:35]
It U.S. Market News International (MNI) reported yesterday, citing sources, said the China Banking February yuan of new loans reached 1.1 trillion yuan. figure is lower than in January of new loans hit record high 1.62 trillion yuan, but still much higher Most people had expected at. MNI reports that bill financing the proportion of total new loans or further increase in January, compared to 38.5%.
[2009-3-4 10:38:44]
Three compete in the revitalization of hi hope Hebei Dairy
, Yili, Mengniu, Bright, San Yuan, Wahaha, also an early exit.
no suspense in this bidding war on the eve of Castle Peak, General Manager, said Hebei triple, three have developed a series of re- the entire program will be implemented soon after a successful auction.
triple stop plate the day today, tomorrow will give us material to continue to surprise investors, investors continue to focus on hope.
[2009-3-4 10:44 : 52]
cement consumption in the upcoming season, or even related to the improvement of corporate profits than-expected growth in the cement industry is expected to further enhance the intrinsic value of investments to cement stocks investment opportunities, Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement and other leading cement companies and Sichuan Golden Summit, the Qilian Mountains and the Taihang Cement and other regional local cement companies will benefit from the infrastructure investment will drive. At the same time, a larger proportion of cement business for some but not yet fully tap the hidden cement stocks, the value of the future will face mining investment opportunities, such as Science City, Shaonenggufen of shares of the South.
with the government to substantially increase investment in the field of infrastructure, and Sichuan disaster areas start reconstruction work, together with the commencement of construction of Railway , a new round of infrastructure investment boom show, the cement industry will undoubtedly become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the plate
[2009-3-4 10:50:18]
strong performance of the broader market in early trading has been very clear, disk be Lee led the increase in disk ascribed somewhat lower is normal, while in the case of strong emergence has been scheduled callback customer expectations are often short-term opportunities. so do not worry too much about the broader market fell.
[2009-3 - 4 10:50:44]
for this year's economic trends, the National Bureau of Statistics Li, former director of the water that will be the first low to high, slow climb. half of the base is relatively high, the first three quarters of this year compared with last year will be very low.
Change. But Li water that, while this year's foreign trade situation is grim, but because of January's trade surplus is still relatively large, in February will not run deficits.
[2009-3-4 10:56:55]
U.S. bank rescue industry, application, and then by March 25 officially approved funds to stimulate small and medium financial institutions and the relaxation of credit to consumers.
financial institution can hold a car loan, credit cards, student loans, or small business loan guarantees The included in the Collateral.
to purchase 5,000 banks from 100 million to 1 trillion U.S. dollars of toxic assets, and then have taken out the money to buy toxic debt by the private sector full responsibility for operations, operating loss by Washington to take part, or even the private sector to provide interest-free loans .
In addition, the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) to attend the Senate Budget Committee hearings, urging Washington to take decisive measures to make the economy out of a deep recession, even if the expense of the debt also rose.
[2009-3-4 11:02:38]
2, the Indian government released data show that in January this year India exported 12.38 billion, down 15.9%, to May 1998 the biggest decline since.
So far, India's exports have declined .1 4 consecutive months of decline on higher exports of textiles, handicrafts, jewelry, leather, metal and rice.
India will be the financial year ended March 31. In this first ten months of fiscal, India exported a total of 144.266 billion U.S. dollars, compared with growth of 13.2% over the same period last year. Indian business and industry exports have expected this fiscal year down from 200 billion U.S. dollars 1,700 million. < br> As oil prices, India, January imports amounted to 18.455 billion U.S. dollars, up 18.2% to drop. ten months of this fiscal year, India imported a total of 243.358 billion U.S. dollars, up 25.3%; trade deficit was $ 99,100,000,000 higher than the previous year's 66.83 billion U.S. dollars over the same period.
to mitigate the global economic crisis impact on exports, India announced last month, 26 new export incentives, ranging from six months beginning in April to reduce the leather and textile exports to the United States and Europe of transaction costs.
[2009-3-4 11:05:13]
today to follow up two 4 Please pay attention to
[2009-3-4 11:06:44 ]
lying big stock market analogy 8 (c)
diamond bachelor, said: The stock market, such as Rose is about the scene. relative to stocks such as blind, dreams are often fundamental, results of operations, such as lack of growth One can not. The results are often unsatisfactory, but hard to find a dark horse pick and choose nowhere. the world can there be the perfect lover, then suddenly realized mm No wonder you get older your still single lot, actually.
[2009-3 - 4 11:15:04]
2150 the position of some of the pressure points, and also in the top 30 lines, but the pattern of today's rally was not changed, the intraday stock prices are basically the main Shanghai stock market fell a total of only 37 in the afternoon to see whether to maintain momentum on the red morning, more than 50 billion the amount of energy is good, if the amount of energy a day to over 100 billion, it is possible the broader market rally to continue
[2009-3-4 11:15:32]
���� Director of Press and Publication said on Tuesday that Phoenix Publishing & Media Group may be listed in the first half.
���� participating in two sessions on Tuesday, the gap also said the media has published more than 10 companies will be listed.
����'s position will increase the market for initial public offering will be restored during the first half (IPO) of concern.
the Chinese stock market downturn, officials have stopped IPO of nearly half a year.
[2009-3-4 11:23:55]
2009 �� 2 months, the country set up a fund a total of 2.258 billion yuan of funds raised. from the product type of investment structure, the only fund established the bond funds, are fixed-income products, this month did not set the direction of any stock fund. raised from the bond fund the scale of the low-risk fixed-income products are still welcomed by investors.
With market, strong gains in the New Year, March 2009 issue of the Fund will usher in a long absence, the month in the distribution of wave .3 18 products, of which 14 products for the direction of the stock, and the remaining four directions for the fixed-income funds, stocks direction products account for a significant number of advantages.
to note that the issue of speed means that the fund market fund products rapid increase in supply, we need to look at these new products to determine the size of the average raise demand from investors whether the situation has improved.
[2009-3-4 11:24:00]
Monday, the author of . the day, I said to the stock to rebound in the broader market after a comprehensive counter-offensive in recent days has remained upside momentum was palpable today's daily limit. the market outlook is still bullish.
[2009-3-4 11:32:19 ]
lying big stock market analogy 8 (d)
player said: the stock market, such as chess. Everyone wanted to rob a upper hand, but just get the stock market is called hunters or grab a rebound. whether the upper hand FLAC, have a move may inadvertently lose the whole. are particular about the overall consideration at every step, that have nothing ventured nothing gained in fighting spirit, but also the need for sacrifices courage.
[2009-3-4 13: 04:43]
broader market opening attack again, but in 2150 there will be pressure around, and today a strong ability to try to attack again? disk limit the number began to increase, if the effect can be reflected in profit, turnover will continue to enlarge, and now need more funding approach
[2009-3-4 13:07:41]
Tuesday, Xinhua quoted the Ministry of Agriculture news reports said the weather caused continuous rainfall in the eastern region of China about 800 million mu of farmland were affected.
hardest-hit Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi Province, precipitation in some areas up to three to four times the normal year.
reported that rainy weather is expected to continue until March 6, but did not disclose more more details.
Previously, nearly half of the winter wheat growing areas affected by a rare drought.
again last week, despite the A-share market crash, stock funds overall net worth has shrunk, but there is only slight decrease in the number of fund accounts, still remain high, as the issue of new funds pumping blood. the board on Tuesday the latest data released last week, the Fund account number 42500, maintained on a high at 40,000, only a slight decrease of 3.1% qoq, in which the number of new accounts for the 467 closed-end funds households, TA system with accounts, the funds generated numbers to 4.21 million. market analysis, A shares slump hit market confidence, the fund accounts, last week hit a new high of nearly a year after the fall, but all week 40000 this year is still a high number of new accounts will now issue a new fund-intensive to provide strong support. Statistics show that, as of last Friday, the Chinese A share total of 15 new funds are densely distributed on May 21, 2008 Funds will also be issued only after another new high, in addition to funds already received 9 approvals issued, the threshold issue. Last week the Chinese open-end fund performance differentiation, stock funds fell across the board, the Fund for the week fell more than more than Jiucheng 5%, bond funds over sixty percent of the gains across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.90% last week, cumulative, creating the biggest weekly drop this year.
[2009-3-4 8:52:28]
Finance Department and the Federal Reserve launched a short-term asset-backed securities lending facility plan that will meet the requirements of the part of the AAA asset-backed securities holders of the class to provide 200 billion U.S. dollars loan. the plan eventually to businesses and families to provide 1 trillion of loans . Federal Reserve to buy asset-backed securities is to improve the liquidity of the financial system and credit environment. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on March 3 in the Senate Budget Committee, said the key to economic recovery, the Government's ability to stabilize the financial markets. he considers necessary to introduce more programs to avoid 500 index is dropped past the 700 point mark. The Dow Jones index fell 37 points to close at 6726 points. intraday rebound to 6846 points. technology stocks fell 1.84 points, the Nasdaq index closed at 1321 points. Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 4.49 points, to close at 696.33 points, this is the first time since 1996 index fell below 700 points. to a record high in 2007 dollars, the S & P 500 fell 56%, the Dow Jones index fell by 53%. a U.S. analyst that the reference to bonds, U.S. stock valuations of about 600 points in the S & P 500 Index.
[2009-3-4 9:05:57]
Please pay attention today to follow up two
[2009 -3-4 9:07:55]
broader market in the U.S. stock market again today, this will remain under downward pressure shocks, disk is still the opportunity to stock performance, stock division will not change the situation, a rebound in the two shares
Comments 1): Tibet's Tin Road (600326)
material into two sessions, the focus of the development of Tibet
The two upcoming, can be expected that They tax rate increase is still 17% only Liu Yu 3 at the Second Session of the Eleventh CPPCC National Committee, attended the opening of the pre-said that the current level of interest rates appropriate, whether to continue cutting interest rates need to observe, it will depend primarily on economic data for some time. In order to ensure economic growth, 2008 Since September, the central bank has cut five times the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans of financial institutions. But this year, the central bank cut interest rates has not pressed the button. CPI for February the central bank will cut interest rates after the announcement, the market is full of anticipation and controversy. National CPPCC, China Merchants Bank Chairman Qin Xiao 3, also said that China has little room to cut interest rates. from the current position, the central bank cut interest rates in the short term is unlikely, and as open market operations has been strengthened Therefore, the focus of follow-up is still the central bank control on the open market, followed by the deposit reserve ratio.
[2009-3-4 9:13:38]
the face of the mainland this year, can a chorus of many senior officials in the Mainland, said economic growth this year could reach eight per cent are optimistic and believed that China should prevent deflation and keep the yuan rate stable.
Chinese Finance Minister Xie said in Beijing yesterday to attend the CPPCC and NPC two sessions, said that China's economic growth this year, said that the current policy in the implementation of all aspects, not only is the public investment, including tax breaks, the next steps will be taken into account the actual situation.
the People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Su Ning pointed out at the same occasion, the current China's overall economic functioning properly, is likely to recover in the first half, very confident of economic growth on the Mainland.
the People's Bank of China deputy governor Liu Yu said that this year's economic growth, Development is to maintain stable and rapid economic growth an important measure, the current remains to be seen whether the rate cut; and prevention of deflation is an important task of central banks, including China.
Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said that China's economy has maintained a positive growth, no recession, while the international market is shrinking for the Chinese foreign trade declined in February, but he is confident of China's import and export trade; but he also pointed out that China's imports and exports in February were higher than the decline in January.
he said that China is shrinking export performance is due to the international market, although some neighboring countries, the phenomenon of currency devaluation occurs, but the rate of RMB remained stable. He pointed out that the Ministry of Commerce is seriously some local governments to track and assess the effect of consumer vouchers now no national distribution plan.
Ministry of Industry and Information Minister Li pointed out that China's economic growth this year, He said that for the different stages of economic development, the Commission timely to implement tight monetary policy should maintain appropriate flexibility, it is necessary to prevent prices rising too fast, but also to prevent the economic ups and downs.
[2009-3-4 9:21 : 10]
U.S. stocks fell again on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 37.27 points to close at 6726.02 points, down 0.55%; Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 4.49 points to close at 696.33 points, or 0.64% ; the Nasdaq composite index fell 1.84 points to close at 1321.01 points, down 0.14%. Following the Dow Jones index fell below 7,000 points, the S & P 500 index since October 1996 fell below the 700 point mark for the first time mutual authentication between the two is that a new round of sell into the U.S. stock market surge has clearly started, the A-share market, since the downward trend in U.S. stocks have been well known to accelerate Powei, and market investors had anticipated, so critical juncture in the post below the impact of the A-share market is relatively limited, A shares adjusted pace will be more demand for the execution of its own, and now two sessions held on the occasion coincides with the oral Zapan is unlikely, the market will therefore be short-lived respite, continued weak shock consolidation
[2009-3-4 9:30:07]
basic flat broader market open today, indicating U.S. stock market was basically down to digest the news, there was initial stabilized the mean, although the rate of increase in disk not great, but the number of rising stocks fell more than today, the key is to smooth the amount of release.
[2009-3-4 9:32:12]
Although the GEM is hard to determine a specific launch date , but the mechanisms, including eight areas first GEM start planning has been clear.
yesterday, the CPPCC National Committee members, Chairman of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for Chen Dongzheng that GEM has been a matter of course, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is currently preparing to start work any time now. He said preparations for the GEM will never stop, even if the GEM to open, but also a process of continuous improvement.
It is reported that the GEM start planning a total of eight areas, including: regular posting, marketplace, resources, training, publicity and investor education, guidance and training of intermediaries to issue audit and listed on the settlement system for transactions, technology and market supervision system is ready to prepare. Among them, the rules of work release, IPO way for comments had been completed, follow-up also includes the prospectus and related rules comments, and those rules promulgated
[2009-3-4 9:36:54]
real estate stocks led the broader market's direction again, yesterday, in addition to reviews of Fiyta, the other one is the OCT , OCT walk yesterday not called steady in early trading today, a lot of performance to rapidly, today's highlight is the real estate bounce back, the other heavyweights did not hold back, but leave a small gap
[2009-3-4 9 : 37:29]
today to follow up two 2 Please pay attention to
[2009-3-4 9:38:43]
to the end of last month, SDIC Electric Power listed companies (600,886), the country voted a new set (601,918) (601,918) has just released outside unable to complete the restructuring plan announced essential elements required.
just a week, the country's latest restructuring plan to vote on power leap off the paper today. restructured and another to give up the national vote earlier resumption of a new set of red midday after the daily limit on the contrarian, capital raising was robbed. SDIC Electric Power announced restructuring plan, opened the country to vote, Department of prelude to the integration of assets. Today, the country voted today opened the sealed power limit.
[2009-3-4 9:41:06]
According to Hong Kong, upgrade. According to sources, the birth of the current National People's Congress is expected since the founding of the largest government investment budget to address the global financial crisis and stimulate economic recovery as soon as possible. It is understood that the central government investment budget this year could surge over last year 4 times , the scale of over 700 billion yuan. The upcoming budget will be submitted to the NPC session.
top leadership has been determined to restart the proactive fiscal policy to stimulate the economy to achieve annual growth of about 8%. economy Observers pointed out that the so-called proactive fiscal policy, is through the expansion of fiscal expenditure and reduce fiscal revenue, to the ultimate effect of stimulating economic growth policy. In China's economic growth, financial tsunami, a significant reduction in external demand, exports have fallen sharply, while the consumer despite still maintain a continuous growth, but a short time is difficult to significantly increase its contribution to economic growth. Thus, the central expansion of investment is still the most important and to maintain growth effective means.
[2009-3-4 9:45:07]
5-day moving average of the pressing force depends on how much weight you want to continue performing U.S. stocks fell today to digest the impact of short-term breakthrough is still possible The best intraday trend is slightly adjusted, and then tapping on the ���� average. If out of this trend, our strategy is to start scaling out of positions in the three callback into
[2009-3-4 9:47: 15]
the depth of the financial crisis, the Chinese economy is facing unprecedented difficulties, policy, but after two sessions will be judged to implement policy rules and the New Deal a critical moment. We believe that China's macroeconomic policies in 2009 will focus on capital growth, expand domestic demand and improve the livelihood of the main line. We believe that the Ten hot will be a high degree of attention, including: expansion of investment, improve people's livelihood, private investment and stimulate consumption, employment, social security, tax reform, credit, price reform and regional cooperation. in front of some of the top ten policy of macroeconomic policy since last year extension, such as the expansion of investment, improve people's livelihood, stimulate consumption, social security and so on. We believe that the issue of local bonds, expanding employment, regional economic cooperation and other new policies need to pay close attention to.
Focus br> expand investment: If the first quarter of this year, China's economy continues to deteriorate, the government will further increase the government-led investment and expand efforts to stimulate domestic demand, the previously announced 4 trillion economic stimulus package may further expand the scale.
livelihood investment: total investment of people's livelihood will be over 900 billion yuan, an average of 3,000 billion per year.
private investment: securities Huanshui for SMEs will start a series of measures to support SME development.
stimulate consumption: government increased income from direct to reform income distribution system, improve the expectations of both disposable income and stimulate rural consumption is expected to launch, promote the consumption of hot consumer upgrade training to improve six aspects of the environment to stimulate consumer spending.
the expansion of employment: We expect the government will implement the expansion of employment development strategy, adhere to the upgrading of the structure and support to promote employment and entrepreneurship to coordinate, strengthen the employment policy and monetary, fiscal and industrial policy coordination; promoting entrepreneurship to improve employment, the implementation of urban and rural to expand the advantages of a job area.
Social Security Medical: improving the social insurance system, deepen the educational reform, and promote health care reform. the next 3 years, governments at all levels is expected to invest 850 billion yuan.
fiscal reform: fiscal and taxation system reform to speed up the implementation of structural tax to issue local government bonds.
credit Innovation: new deposits mainly for local lenders. At present, relevant departments of the central bank is leading the development of specific assessment methods, and will fully demonstrate and seek the views of all parties, based on this as soon as possible specific measures.
regional cooperation: through national and local level planning to start regional economic development, and then from the point, and to promote the development of the entire region.
price reform: implementation of the core of energy price reform to break the monopoly of a variety of industries, opening up more investment opportunities.
[2009-3-4 10:04:28]
yesterday, and our reviews of the OCT A Fiyta, two shares of upside momentum in today's rapidly opening rose more than 5 points, a great tendency to limit the impact. Let us wait and see!
[2009-3-4 10:07:22]
China Industry and Information Technology Minister Li said on Tuesday that the Government is related regulations to support the two smaller domestic telecom business, but no timetable for the publication of the Ordinance.
Li did not point out the relevant regulations in the specific details but said the content will have a bias. This means relative to the largest mobile operator China Mobile Ltd., the regulations related content will be more conducive China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited and China Telecom Corporation Limited.
analysts had said that Government may allow users to switch to China Mobile or China Telecom, China Unicom, after the service to retain their original number.
he said, the government released the third generation mobile phone (3G) license is a key step in the development of the telecommunications industry. Li said, China Mobile issued by the independent research and development based on domestic standard TD-SCDMA 3G license, China Mobile is committed to the government has encouraged the commercial use of TD-SCDMA, which will benefit the whole TD-SCDMA industry chain development.
[ ,],[great chance to again limit today. hope you continue to pay attention.
[2009-3-4 10:15:40]
still relatively rapid rebound in early trading, but the amount can not see the bounce effectively, so In the broader market may be washed up after the 2100 shock, but the early pattern of broad based stock has been formed, most of the stock rises more than the broader market. two effects is expected to begin opening in the disk radiation, the impact of today but also the success of the 5th line to see how the trend of the day.
[2009-3-4 10:18:34]
During the two sessions, the Ministry of Housing and Urban (the will not introduce any new recent real estate control policies.
Qi Ji, vice minister of the Ministry of Housing recently told CCTV said that taking initiative, through the promotion of housing sales at reasonable prices within the framework of regulations, where there are reasonable and conducive to support and encourage residents to housing consumption, should be given support. the next period of time, the Housing Ministry's main task will be fully grasp the State Council Document No. 131, referred to the implementation of various policy measures, some of the work group will also organized to check all over, Recently the Ministry of Rural Development will not be issued any new real estate regulation and control policy. or the impact of today's market trend showing a good start, opening one hour rose nearly 40 points, a firm point in 2100, and the current rally is still good, the recent rally to our investors a glimmer of hope. today is still the focus two income subject matter, including the people concerned about education and health sector.
[2009-3-4 10:27:01]
3 �� 2nd, we comment in the stock market in Tibet Mining Watch, the performance of super-good today. Deadline 10:25, the stock rose more than 8% of the maximum, become the OCT, Fiyta, subjects such as Daqing China is expected to limit the stocks
[2009-3-4 10:29:29]
continue today Please pay attention to follow-up two 3
[2009-3-4 10:30:59]
Yesterday, the CPPCC National Committee member, Health Minister Chen Zhu said that the final program of health care reform in the announced, level. If the public hospital is located in Beijing to participate in the pilot reform of the national public hospital initiative, countries will be encouraged. He disclosed that the state will choose some typical medium-sized city, but the specific choice and number of the city them medical services, essential drugs system construction. will change after the removal of drug addition hospitals must have a compensation mechanism, step by step process Daqing Huake
just comment, is expected to limit the list will be today, it really live up to expectations China Branch of Daqing, opened less than an hour once the daily limit.
[2009-3-4 10:36:35]
It U.S. Market News International (MNI) reported yesterday, citing sources, said the China Banking February yuan of new loans reached 1.1 trillion yuan. figure is lower than in January of new loans hit record high 1.62 trillion yuan, but still much higher Most people had expected at. MNI reports that bill financing the proportion of total new loans or further increase in January, compared to 38.5%.
[2009-3-4 10:38:44]
Three compete in the revitalization of hi hope Hebei Dairy
, Yili, Mengniu, Bright, San Yuan, Wahaha, also an early exit.
no suspense in this bidding war on the eve of Castle Peak, General Manager, said Hebei triple, three have developed a series of re- the entire program will be implemented soon after a successful auction.
triple stop plate the day today, tomorrow will give us material to continue to surprise investors, investors continue to focus on hope.
[2009-3-4 10:44 : 52]
cement consumption in the upcoming season, or even related to the improvement of corporate profits than-expected growth in the cement industry is expected to further enhance the intrinsic value of investments to cement stocks investment opportunities, Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement and other leading cement companies and Sichuan Golden Summit, the Qilian Mountains and the Taihang Cement and other regional local cement companies will benefit from the infrastructure investment will drive. At the same time, a larger proportion of cement business for some but not yet fully tap the hidden cement stocks, the value of the future will face mining investment opportunities, such as Science City, Shaonenggufen of shares of the South.
with the government to substantially increase investment in the field of infrastructure, and Sichuan disaster areas start reconstruction work, together with the commencement of construction of Railway , a new round of infrastructure investment boom show, the cement industry will undoubtedly become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the plate
[2009-3-4 10:50:18]
strong performance of the broader market in early trading has been very clear, disk be Lee led the increase in disk ascribed somewhat lower is normal, while in the case of strong emergence has been scheduled callback customer expectations are often short-term opportunities. so do not worry too much about the broader market fell.
[2009-3 - 4 10:50:44]
for this year's economic trends, the National Bureau of Statistics Li, former director of the water that will be the first low to high, slow climb. half of the base is relatively high, the first three quarters of this year compared with last year will be very low.
Change. But Li water that, while this year's foreign trade situation is grim, but because of January's trade surplus is still relatively large, in February will not run deficits.
[2009-3-4 10:56:55]
U.S. bank rescue industry, application, and then by March 25 officially approved funds to stimulate small and medium financial institutions and the relaxation of credit to consumers.
financial institution can hold a car loan, credit cards, student loans, or small business loan guarantees The included in the Collateral.
to purchase 5,000 banks from 100 million to 1 trillion U.S. dollars of toxic assets, and then have taken out the money to buy toxic debt by the private sector full responsibility for operations, operating loss by Washington to take part, or even the private sector to provide interest-free loans .
In addition, the Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) to attend the Senate Budget Committee hearings, urging Washington to take decisive measures to make the economy out of a deep recession, even if the expense of the debt also rose.
[2009-3-4 11:02:38]
2, the Indian government released data show that in January this year India exported 12.38 billion, down 15.9%, to May 1998 the biggest decline since.
So far, India's exports have declined .1 4 consecutive months of decline on higher exports of textiles, handicrafts, jewelry, leather, metal and rice.
India will be the financial year ended March 31. In this first ten months of fiscal, India exported a total of 144.266 billion U.S. dollars, compared with growth of 13.2% over the same period last year. Indian business and industry exports have expected this fiscal year down from 200 billion U.S. dollars 1,700 million. < br> As oil prices, India, January imports amounted to 18.455 billion U.S. dollars, up 18.2% to drop. ten months of this fiscal year, India imported a total of 243.358 billion U.S. dollars, up 25.3%; trade deficit was $ 99,100,000,000 higher than the previous year's 66.83 billion U.S. dollars over the same period.
to mitigate the global economic crisis impact on exports, India announced last month, 26 new export incentives, ranging from six months beginning in April to reduce the leather and textile exports to the United States and Europe of transaction costs.
[2009-3-4 11:05:13]
today to follow up two 4 Please pay attention to
[2009-3-4 11:06:44 ]
lying big stock market analogy 8 (c)
diamond bachelor, said: The stock market, such as Rose is about the scene. relative to stocks such as blind, dreams are often fundamental, results of operations, such as lack of growth One can not. The results are often unsatisfactory, but hard to find a dark horse pick and choose nowhere. the world can there be the perfect lover, then suddenly realized mm No wonder you get older your still single lot, actually.
[2009-3 - 4 11:15:04]
2150 the position of some of the pressure points, and also in the top 30 lines, but the pattern of today's rally was not changed, the intraday stock prices are basically the main Shanghai stock market fell a total of only 37 in the afternoon to see whether to maintain momentum on the red morning, more than 50 billion the amount of energy is good, if the amount of energy a day to over 100 billion, it is possible the broader market rally to continue
[2009-3-4 11:15:32]
���� Director of Press and Publication said on Tuesday that Phoenix Publishing & Media Group may be listed in the first half.
���� participating in two sessions on Tuesday, the gap also said the media has published more than 10 companies will be listed.
����'s position will increase the market for initial public offering will be restored during the first half (IPO) of concern.
the Chinese stock market downturn, officials have stopped IPO of nearly half a year.
[2009-3-4 11:23:55]
2009 �� 2 months, the country set up a fund a total of 2.258 billion yuan of funds raised. from the product type of investment structure, the only fund established the bond funds, are fixed-income products, this month did not set the direction of any stock fund. raised from the bond fund the scale of the low-risk fixed-income products are still welcomed by investors.
With market, strong gains in the New Year, March 2009 issue of the Fund will usher in a long absence, the month in the distribution of wave .3 18 products, of which 14 products for the direction of the stock, and the remaining four directions for the fixed-income funds, stocks direction products account for a significant number of advantages.
to note that the issue of speed means that the fund market fund products rapid increase in supply, we need to look at these new products to determine the size of the average raise demand from investors whether the situation has improved.
[2009-3-4 11:24:00]
Monday, the author of . the day, I said to the stock to rebound in the broader market after a comprehensive counter-offensive in recent days has remained upside momentum was palpable today's daily limit. the market outlook is still bullish.
[2009-3-4 11:32:19 ]
lying big stock market analogy 8 (d)
player said: the stock market, such as chess. Everyone wanted to rob a upper hand, but just get the stock market is called hunters or grab a rebound. whether the upper hand FLAC, have a move may inadvertently lose the whole. are particular about the overall consideration at every step, that have nothing ventured nothing gained in fighting spirit, but also the need for sacrifices courage.
[2009-3-4 13: 04:43]
broader market opening attack again, but in 2150 there will be pressure around, and today a strong ability to try to attack again? disk limit the number began to increase, if the effect can be reflected in profit, turnover will continue to enlarge, and now need more funding approach
[2009-3-4 13:07:41]
Tuesday, Xinhua quoted the Ministry of Agriculture news reports said the weather caused continuous rainfall in the eastern region of China about 800 million mu of farmland were affected.
hardest-hit Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi Province, precipitation in some areas up to three to four times the normal year.
reported that rainy weather is expected to continue until March 6, but did not disclose more more details.
Previously, nearly half of the winter wheat growing areas affected by a rare drought.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Negative factor for the future of the banking industry levy - Sina User Reviews
Sina User 2008-07-05 17:41:51 in the 282 F) Re: the future of the negative factors in the banking industry levy
me I view it (I am eighteen years at the bank, a joint-stock bank in any of the current vice president)
1, banks do annual profit, in fact next year's profits had been the lowest in twenty percent or so, there is no problem in five years. If a sudden substantial increase in profit is definitely the stimulus of external factors (such as changes in tax and other factors)
2, each of the bank loan are put Accounting mention a certain proportion of bad debt reserve fund, if the provision of a bank is much more clear the bad debts in the collection or recovery of loans, before provision of reserves to a current profit, to some extent, the provisions cover a high bank profits may also be the future high rate may be bad now appears the bank, with the passage of time collection and disposal, could be transformed into a profit, is the so-called rotten ships, three thousand nails, nail Sell also can make money
3, issued by banks in each of the business indicators (including the deposit and loan size, the middle of the business, profit, etc.) is higher than the previous year by thirty to forty percent issued in proportion to the bank There is a saying, every year in mid-sad too, every year passes are good, as long as the mental decline, way better than more difficult. The task increases every year, but in the system, there are able to fulfill the mission of the line (the lowest percentage of completion Ninety per), but there are always lines to complete the task (up to complete the one hundred and thirty percent), together, about thirty percent growth is assured.
4, there is a important factor is the establishment of new outlets, in general, the establishment of a new network (branch level), then flat, generally the second year will have three million profit, after five years to a peak of about 200 million won in , we calculate, how many years of growth. In addition to the establishment of branches of the network level, there are branches of the network, consider this a chicken and egg patterns, there will be any problems with growth.
5, the banking industry, although operational risk, but the line my wife seems not the case, the head office if you want to open a new branch, only to do three things, to find President, engraved seals, millions of offering a uniform fees, only this and nothing, as the law of the development bank, 5 years to reach the peak, usually around 25 billion in deposits and capital profits of about one percent, how can we talk about good business to do so, five 20-fold return on investment, again a bit deeper, a little afraid of what bad, the bigger the denominator on the line, five cups, lids 10 can be, worry about?
today a little more soil, no data analysis, data authenticity can not always reliable, so simple to talk about bank earnings growth, so that we have a perceptual awareness.
Posted by anonymous - 2008-7-5
Note: On the banks know the old shareholders
First, banking is a cyclical industry, its performance is even greater than other typical fluctuations in the cyclical industry.
in the present, as many professionals in the financial industry are classified in a cyclical industry, and even the strong cyclical industry? I am puzzled, the financial industry (banking) is a service industry, service industry how it can be understood as a cyclical industry?
, of course, you can also say that, within the fluctuation range of the national economy, any industry is a cyclical industry, because it was more or less subject to fluctuations in economic fluctuations. commercial, consumer goods and white wine categories and even the military class is no exception, even the service industry will also have periodic fluctuations. Could it be that the business will not be Maotai the volatility of economic fluctuations? Obviously, this is unrealistic. Maotai will still be fluctuations with the fluctuations in national economic development. So, why is not a cyclical industry Maotai ? Why do we not hear that last year when the banking industry is a cyclical industry, it?
Could it be that when the stock price rise is not a cyclical industry, the stock fell after it becomes a cyclical industry? What is the logic? not as good as even gangster logic!
banking is the king of all trades, but also businesses in the first, he is different from other industries characterized by its high ceilings high, medium and small banks in general is difficult to reach the ceiling in a short time. Bank industry to cyclical fluctuations in the traditional industry sectors the selection of different objects serve to smooth the volatility of economic fluctuations. In other words, the weakest banking is a cyclical industry, and most stable growth. Of course, here on the best show bankers or financiers of the operating level. Of course, because our banks are still young, the real, recognized banker has not yet appeared.
we can look sophisticated in the West market, which is a century-old high proportion of other industries or a high proportion of the banking industry? bankruptcy liquidation of a banking or other industries more and more?
We can also look at the case of listed companies in recent years, we, the banking sector, high and stable growth, or other industries?
This is real nonsense, nonsense typical.
Conclusion: In contrast, among all of our industry, the banking industry is the most stable, long-term the best growth of the industry. In China, there is no industry can be compared with the banking industry.
Second, the banking industry is a high risk industry, if the real estate bubble burst will bring disaster.
Yes Banking is a high risk industry, because of its characteristics is the operational risks of the industry. So, I have always said to invest in banking, business performance is not very major, and its asset quality and risk control is the real important factor. Therefore, radical management style is a double edged sword, in the same time to obtain maximum benefit latent risk, especially with the incentive mechanism in the next case. the United States subprime mortgage crisis is a ready example.
According to statistics, to the end of March 2008, the national commercial banks and foreign currency loans was 29.4 trillion yuan, a commercial real estate loans 5.01 trillion yuan, of which real estate development loans 1.8 trillion yuan (the total domestic banking system is about 6% of total loans), personal housing mortgage loans of 3.13 trillion yuan (accounting for the entire domestic banking system is about 11% of total loans). Although the real estate development and personal mortgage balance does not lead to the collapse of the banking sector, but Taking into account all the 07 listed banks only 287.7 billion yuan in total profits, as long as the development of mortgage loans and bad debt generated by 6%, enough to swallow the whole banking industry profits. The statistical data, if the real estate collective death, then indeed a disaster for the banking industry, at least several years of profit gone.
In fact, the risk of real estate loans, the main developer of this in a, and is formed in the second half of 2007 loans have certain risks, not all loans have a problem.
As for personal mortgage this one, I think that is a quality loans in the banking category. because the greatest risk mainly in the investment sector, mostly in the outskirts of the city's conceptual premises, but only in the price formation of the maximum time period that constitutes a substantial mortgage to stop for the phenomenon. Although it may seem like the absolute value not small, but I guess very, very small percentage will not exceed 1% of the overall mortgage. so, if the proportion of mortgages that stopped for about 1%, then the bank's performance is almost no impact. because of the current Bank lending in loans since, it has been extracted by 1% of bad debts. Moreover, the property was able to recover a portion of cash and then put a few bad not to be recovered Well, not last year's total The highest bid price is the future right?
Oh, we have to calculate the formation of the mortgage bank for the number of stop loss?
If a house is 100 square meters, priced 1 million square meters, total 100 million . Personal 30 million down payment, the bank 70 million mortgage. home prices fell 40% (ie 60 million at current prices) after the suspension, a non-performing assets. It should be said more or less the person has paid the mortgage for several months right? bank repossessed a house that can not be 50 million to be able to auction off? I think it should be no problem. then the bank is the loss of 20 million (does not consider part of the mortgage has been paid), then that is the loss of 20 million, compared to 70 million loan, the loss is 28.57%. Considering that this is within 1% of 28.57%, so this loss is from a very small amount. and, for banks, the losses consider the provision for bad debts have been inside. In other words, the profits being extracted in the main provision for bad debts is more than this proportion.
Conclusion: the risk of real estate will bring the risk of banking sector . But when the top has not become aware of the risk, because the level of policy makers. Moreover, risk control, good bank in the last year has been a conscious selection of developer loans, loans to the developer's control. Here , the test is the level of risk control.
Third, high oil prices will be the biggest risks our economy, if liberalized oil prices will cause serious economic recession.
Oh, this is an exaggerated assumption . Although the current high oil prices lead to rising prices will cause some difficulties in the real economy, but said that the formation of the national economy to an overstatement of a severe recession.
To illustrate this, we calculate the quantified the impact of high oil prices now.
basis, China's net imports of crude oil in 2007 159,280,000 tons, an increase of 14.7%.
according to China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association figures, in 2007 326,790,000 tons of crude oil in China, an increase of 6.4%, 6.3% in 2006 The growth rate was essentially flat.
According to statistics, in 2007 China's gasoline production was 59.94 million tons, up 7.2%; diesel production was 123.7 million tons, an increase of 6.2%.; kerosene output was 11,533,000 tons, an increase of 19 %.
2007-7-3 with China's oil import dependence is rising oil prices In 2003, the international price of oil still in the 25 U.S. dollars / barrel, by 2006, oil prices reached 65 dollars / barrel, the average annual increase in the $ 10 down. and the current price of oil has reached 70 U.S. dollars / barrel. We have seen Brent futures prices, the actual import price to be much lower than the Brent oil futures.
so be it, we calculate what the price of crude oil will affect many of our profits? 2007 is 159 million tons of net imports, in 2008 we imported 180 million tons for the calculation of the net, assuming that the net price of a barrel of crude oil imports up 30 dollars a ton about 7 barrels of crude oil, the dollar's exchange rate calculated in accordance with 1:6.80 . Guess it is to increase our gross cost 257 billion yuan (1.80 * 30 * 7 * 6.8).
07 years, our GDP was 26.177 trillion yuan, fiscal revenue at about 5.1 trillion yuan, the scale about corporate profits than in the 2.295 trillion yuan. The increase in the cost of crude oil increased by less than 1% of GDP, affecting about 10% of profits a little, about 5% of revenue, should we not afford it that cost? I was a little hard to believe. Even if the full subsidy, but also not much increase in the fiscal deficit. is not someone exaggerating?
course, I say this in full subsidy is only another way, because they do not consistent with the development of emission reduction objectives. is to make the price index stable and temporary intervention, will slowly return to nature. Just think, if we all let go of refined oil prices if crude oil prices suddenly dropped, then that also need to oil all of a sudden fall, but this does not meet the Chinese nation and the stability concept, does not conform to our concept of harmony.
we should understand that our total economic output has been large, and previously not mentioned in the same language requirements of our people is not high. So, as long as our political stability, the policy does not appear on the low-level errors, then, can have any difficulties. you do not believe, all right, we'll see!
Conclusion: High oil prices will increase the cost of the real economy will affect our real economy, but will not fundamentally affect the development of national economy.
received yesterday that the issue of real estate risk.
why the Government to suppress the stock market? Why should we control the overheated investment? Why should control the price rise? Why should implement a tight monetary policy? All this is to strive for stable development, for our long-term stable and rapid economic development can, in order to avoid the economic development ups and downs, to social development and harmony, to all aspects of the harmony. So, we can not say that the stock market decline, falling property prices, tight monetary policy, RMB appreciation internal devaluation of foreign, are the government. the government deliberately behavior, is governance. Government deliberately hit the brakes, through policy and public opinion to achieve steady long-term development. So when the real estate problems that, when found high oil prices will affect the economy, the economy turned down when The Government will amend policy, that is, put the brakes on efforts to put a little on it. In fact, this is our government. a very major functions of government. and we want to particularly strong management control, I hope both big and small in their grasp. Oh, yes, the right to not expire Well, anyone to do that.
we can think about, can we say the government. government hopes to economic problems? This can not be right ?
Fourth, if the economic downturn will lead to large bad debts, banks will fall into recession in the swamp.
Indeed, if the national economy has entered a financial crisis or recession or hyperinflation, then the banking sector do not be an exception, will inevitably bring about investment risk. But in the present case, the probability of how high? I personally think the probability is not high.
still so short, we are developing Our infrastructure is still very weak, our urbanization process is still ongoing, we are in the early stages of industrialization, we need huge investments to complete the process. in particular our transport, since the entire society investment enthusiasm, so the inhibition of the parties intentionally or unintentionally transport infrastructure, economic development has posed a bottleneck parts. If our economic development indeed may be declining, then the government. Government is bound to increase public investment to compensate for this defect, by relaxing control to promote the economic development investment.
digression here to say, once because of our investment in overheating, resulting in almost the whole of society industry overcapacity, so a few years ago to form the price level of depression. With the rapid development in recent years, excess capacity was basically balanced, so it caused the current price index started to rise. So, if economic growth could drop, then relax the investment is again a basis.
We can not say, our current government. Government and are not afraid of economic development or is likely to decline, but the fear of overheating, therefore, our current policy or economic development is to control overheating. When the level of economic development that may slow or may drop the case, then it will have revised policy, money supply, increased public investment to stimulate economic development.
or above sentence: lift that leg, relax the intensity of the brakes on it.
increase in the last central bank reserve ratio by 1% of the time, relevant departments of Development and Reform Commission to challenge the first time is a signal, we need to inflation and trade-offs between economic development. the attitude of recent high-level From the a signal? Why do some people turn a blind eye.
tell the truth, I have no ability to talk about it further, I do not want to talk about it more, after all, typing is not exercise the action, I'm lazy .
Conclusion: We believe in the wisdom of high-level, we believe the relevant decision-making capacity. in maintaining political stability, do not make a stupid mistake in the premise, I believe our economy is no problem. In order to maintain the stable development of all aspects of is the need to slow that growth rate only, chicken fart (gdp) growth rate remained at around 8% is no problem. You do not say that the growth rate of 8% is down, that is, recession, and this is the world's leading speed, and we do not necessarily bear all aspects of higher growth.
five, China's financial industry will enter a financial disintermediation process, the future will lead to interest rate competition, thus reducing the financial industry profit margins, causing the banking industry profits retrogression.
What is financial disintermediation, financial disintermediation of corporate entities working capital is not dependent on the bank, he can from bonds, stock market, and so various forms of partnership funding, or direct financing (banks loans are indirect financing, because banks, the intermediaries). so that the bank's money supply exceeds demand (or supply and demand), the bank raised interest rates competitive.
However, we should understand that this is the wealth of the whole society after the rich product. we are developing, we also poverty, we have not to this level. the current situation is that we thirst for funds, all aspects, including you and I are still short of money, otherwise, how could our moral values are ; all the money needs? or you look so-so enterprises in developed countries and the debt ratio debt ratio of China's enterprises will understand the problem of.
Sometimes I have to think about this question: Which of our professionals a comprehensive look at why can not problems, but always from a point to see full? always food of the western Pacific is not how how? Could it be that all education, prompting disaster? or a word that I said before: standing under the large banyan tree, affectionate to sigh with open arms: wow! A big piece of the forest!
Oh, I'm too lazy typing, and do not want in-depth analysis of the.
Conclusion: our economic society, the financial disintermediation a distant story, is not already present process can be achieved. It is a long story, not a 20 years 30 years is not up to the level of financial disintermediation, and we need not worry about this.
VI, China's banks to spread the main profit model, the current high interest rate environment in the future, narrowing the spread will cause a significant setback banking performance.
Oh, that this problem, I even saw some people say Our spread is the highest in the world to say, I do not know or is he ignorant of the problem? us look at the professional says so right.
2003, the major industrial countries one-year difference of 1.78% gross -3.59%, and Latin American countries, one-year gross margin difference of 3.82% -45.11%, and the transition countries (excluding China) one-year difference in gross margin between 3.60% -8.50%, while China's one-year difference between deposit and lending margins have been maintained since 2002 at 3.33%, significantly lower than the Latin American countries and countries in transition, the average level.
If at this stage of the institutional environment (1) of the commercial banks deposit and lending rates is completely determined by the market, and (2) The commercial banks are independent, self-financing, effective market players, then the interest rate of bank deposit and lending will be greater than current levels. Now our bank deposit and loan interest low difference is the result of government controls interest rates, lack of appropriate incentives for banks and the result of pricing power is our commitment to long-term cost of reform to the results of the banking industry. With the urgency of enhancing banking reform, in the interest of full market, we should first expansion of bank deposit and lending spreads, to ensure that our banks in accordance with the principles of international standards and prudent provision for bad loans and supplementary capital, while creating a reasonable return on capital, so that our banks in the market environment in order to survive, for banks market-oriented interest rate reform and create the necessary conditions, but also for banks in China to meet the challenge of foreign banks to prepare.
countries deal with economic recession and financial crisis, brought about the risks of banks generally have two ways. Some countries (such as the United States other traditional developed countries) to banks when the economy is to maintain a large deposit and loan net interest margin, which can accumulate enough for bad debts and capital, to prepare for a recession or financial crisis through. Another way is to As usual accumulation is not enough, some countries (such as South Korea and other newly industrialized countries) in the bank through the recession or savings and loan crisis of the high net interest margin to compensate for the losses during the recession or crisis.
second method is the cost of the above high. First, as usual is not enough accumulation of a large number of banks in economic recession or collapse of the financial crisis, economic recession or financial crisis to worsen the Asian financial crisis of .1997 is an example. Second, in order to prevent banks and Other large financial institutions collapse, governments in economic recession or financial crisis, often forced to bail during the near collapse of the banks, the government's fiscal deficit or inflation increases the risk of prejudice to the normal economic recovery, and increase the moral hazard of banks . Third, the recession or savings and loan crisis of the high net interest margins tend to dampen economic recovery, increasing the difficulty of economic recovery, elongated recession or crisis, a devastating effect on the economy.
observation of a State Bank The savings and loan net interest margin, should observe a long period of change and the average level, and can not just when the economy level. Now, they say, the past two years China's four major state-owned banks tens of billions of annual profits, it seems Lee too bad. This argument has two problems. First, the four state-owned banks have not in accordance with the principles of international standards and prudent provision for bad loans and supplementary capital; if the four state-owned banks in accordance with the principles of international prudential standards and poor Loan provisions and supplementary capital, they will not have tens of billions in profits. Second, the economy is the economy now is the time; we can not because the bank when the economy is profit and forget the economic recession or financial crisis of the banking system may face tremendous difficulties and risks. We should learn from the United States and other developed countries, when the economy is to maintain a large bank deposits and net interest margin, allowing banks to bad debts and accumulate enough capital to prepare for a recession or financial crisis ride out the storm, to prevent large-scale emergence of banking and financial crisis.
Finally, at this stage, China's banking deposit and lending interest rate depends on the intensity of political decision-making. expand the deposit and lending spreads may touch some of the interest groups interests, but in the long-term national interests and the interests of some interest groups among the short-term, our choice should be very clear.
(author of Treaty and Law Department of the People's Bank of China Deputy Director)
good , this issue I will not say to it for analysis to this article.
seven, asymmetric rate hikes, causing a significant decline in profitability of the banking industry.
asymmetric interest rate, which is to say recently Most of the topic, but also a strong bearish bank shares fall, a week Powei bank shares fell, because rumors of a rate hike due to asymmetry. leads to three questions in here, certainly asymmetric interest rate (usually people say asymmetry is reduced interest rate spreads) it? asymmetric interest rate spreads can expand it? asymmetric interest rates to bank stock performance will surely lead you down?
asymmetric interest rate (narrow spread) is the theoretical basis, the current high prices, the deposit interest rates can not cover the price index; loans high interest rates, lucrative banking sector, real economy of death. Yes, that yes, there is some truth, but not necessarily asymmetric reason to raise interest rates.
1, first we have to see whether interest rates on deposits covered by the price index problem. We know that, in general, the interest rate long-term bonds can cover the price index rose, but certainly one-year deposit interest rate the interest rate will be lower than long-term bonds. then it means that one-year deposit rate would not necessarily have to cover the rising price index. In other words, from the long-term perspective, one-year deposit interest rate is lower than the price index The. If you say that we must rise when the price index covering this up, does it mean when the price index fell negative interest rates we achieved? I think you do not agree with it? so, the deposit rate lower than or price index that lags behind the rise in deposit rates is the proper meaning, it is no surprise the problem.
2, now we need to prevent the entry of international hot money, the international hot money into China, their goal to two points, one spread, the second is the exchange rate. If we raise the deposit interest rate, then the spread will cause expansion of the two countries, it will result in more international hot money into it? This is already very headache things we have need to continue to exacerbate the headache?, of course, the people can not take that into consideration, but the central bank does not consider that his misconduct.
3, the current bank loan interest rates are high business stand out? by I do not entirely. Otherwise, why the current limitations in the case of credit lines can improve the real interest rate? why the current cost of capital substantially higher than underground bank interest rate? So, I have always said that the current development of China is a countries, enterprises have a thirst for capital, entrepreneurs are not sensitive to interest rates. This is completely different with the Western developed countries markets.
4, raising interest rates, there are basically two purposes, one for price index rose to give people subsidies, and second, inhibition of smooth price increases consumer desires. raise the deposit rates is aimed at curbing consumption of the people desire to smooth price increases; to raise lending rates is intended to control demand for business investment, thereby reducing prices; this two rate hikes to stabilize prices for the same effect. So why can not we raise a little more than lending rates, deposit interest rates a little less to improve, continue to expand the spread? Of course, this is just my logic on analysis, real interest rate spreads for the implementation of expansion is almost impossible.
5, last year was six times as interest rates, narrowing spreads about 0.54%. But the profitability of banks has decreased or increased a? this we can learn from the recent increase in bank shares advance notice can understand, and I did not need to say much more. to early in the year, had a lot about this issue, as spreads narrowed, 08 years of banking stocks results will form a negative growth. do not know when they see so many pre-increase announcement after what do you think? I estimated to have forgotten it? where people ignore the demand deposits of this very important factor, because the bank had deposits of about half of current deposits, but not synchronize demand deposits and interest rates, so the surface appears to be narrowing the spreads, and its essence is to expand the spread.
here, say an aside, spreads on the surface of relatively developed countries small, but their is almost no interest on demand deposits, so their actual spread is not small.
Conclusion: The asymmetric impact of interest rates for bank specific analysis required for the different effects on different banks , just as banks in the deposit structure is different, can not be generalized. asymmetric narrowing interest rate spreads are not necessarily more likely to expand the spread.
eight, raising the deposit reserve ratio will increase the banking costs, causing a sharp drop in bank performance.
Yes, raising the deposit reserve ratio will indeed improve the bank's operating costs, or the compression bank profit margins, but this is not too great. Because of the loan line management of the situation, the reserve ratio increase and not reduce the bank's loans, working capital is reduced, the bank's other operating funds of the profitability is not high, relatively speaking, the spread income of about around 2%, or a little less than 2%. Currently the interest rate if the reserve ratio is 1.98%, the bank's interest income of other working capital at about 4%.
I will take the people's livelihood, for example, calculations If the reserve ratio increase of 1%, how much will affect profitability?
livelihood of total deposits in 2007 was 670 billion yuan, 800 billion in 2008 to as calculated on the basis of 1% for each additional reserve ratio, then that is reduced by 80 million working capital, calculated in accordance with the spread of 2%, then that is of interest income 160 million yuan, all of this even as profits it, then the net profit was 120 million, affecting the livelihood of 0.0064 yuan per share, net profit , which is the livelihood of about 1% of net profit, really does not matter.
Conclusion: to raise the deposit reserve ratio will increase the operating costs of the banking sector, causing a sharp drop in bank performance is exaggerated conclusions. There impact, but small.
September, the subprime mortgage crisis outside the Bank of China show a high risk, due to lack of capacity of domestic banks, the risk is self-evident.
Yes, this time the bank shares fall , and the psychological factor is also there a lot, because those who watched the face of large international banks such risks, many of them are hundred years old yet. with these internationally renowned banks are difficult to avoid the risk, for Our banks are inexperienced, would not be at greater risk thing.
Here, we should understand that the developed countries banks and the nature of our banking business is not the same, they are mixed operation, the developed countries banks innovative products for those dazzling, to be honest I do also not clear, and nearly half of them are in high-risk profits in other businesses (the so-called non-interest income) generated. Those bankers, in order to obtain over the incentive to strive for in the profit of those derivatives. high yield means high risk, which is the characteristics of foreign banks.
you think about it, they can be full when the mortgage loan, but you can discount the beginning, You can also buy a car with the money (that is, the market price of the house can be 100 million mortgage 1,100,000). When the house after the appreciation, you can continue to price loans out of the money you spend. in our country This can be you?
in us, the parties concerned to help the banks to control risk, in principle, does not allow mixed operation, which had a natural barrier against the risk. Some time ago, some people say that our banks industry profit model of a single, risk-resisting ability is not strong and so on. Now the sound is not enough child?
Oh, well, I do not want to start this topic, and otherwise it is endless. I those who think we do not like foot-binding cloth type stuff it.
Conclusion: The different business models, risk naturally different, this is not comparable.
ten, the international community and given the valuation of bank shares not high, most of the 2 times book value, price-earnings ratio of 15 times, our valuation of banking stocks too high.
for this problem, we ...
me I view it (I am eighteen years at the bank, a joint-stock bank in any of the current vice president)
1, banks do annual profit, in fact next year's profits had been the lowest in twenty percent or so, there is no problem in five years. If a sudden substantial increase in profit is definitely the stimulus of external factors (such as changes in tax and other factors)
2, each of the bank loan are put Accounting mention a certain proportion of bad debt reserve fund, if the provision of a bank is much more clear the bad debts in the collection or recovery of loans, before provision of reserves to a current profit, to some extent, the provisions cover a high bank profits may also be the future high rate may be bad now appears the bank, with the passage of time collection and disposal, could be transformed into a profit, is the so-called rotten ships, three thousand nails, nail Sell also can make money
3, issued by banks in each of the business indicators (including the deposit and loan size, the middle of the business, profit, etc.) is higher than the previous year by thirty to forty percent issued in proportion to the bank There is a saying, every year in mid-sad too, every year passes are good, as long as the mental decline, way better than more difficult. The task increases every year, but in the system, there are able to fulfill the mission of the line (the lowest percentage of completion Ninety per), but there are always lines to complete the task (up to complete the one hundred and thirty percent), together, about thirty percent growth is assured.
4, there is a important factor is the establishment of new outlets, in general, the establishment of a new network (branch level), then flat, generally the second year will have three million profit, after five years to a peak of about 200 million won in , we calculate, how many years of growth. In addition to the establishment of branches of the network level, there are branches of the network, consider this a chicken and egg patterns, there will be any problems with growth.
5, the banking industry, although operational risk, but the line my wife seems not the case, the head office if you want to open a new branch, only to do three things, to find President, engraved seals, millions of offering a uniform fees, only this and nothing, as the law of the development bank, 5 years to reach the peak, usually around 25 billion in deposits and capital profits of about one percent, how can we talk about good business to do so, five 20-fold return on investment, again a bit deeper, a little afraid of what bad, the bigger the denominator on the line, five cups, lids 10 can be, worry about?
today a little more soil, no data analysis, data authenticity can not always reliable, so simple to talk about bank earnings growth, so that we have a perceptual awareness.
Posted by anonymous - 2008-7-5
Note: On the banks know the old shareholders
First, banking is a cyclical industry, its performance is even greater than other typical fluctuations in the cyclical industry.
in the present, as many professionals in the financial industry are classified in a cyclical industry, and even the strong cyclical industry? I am puzzled, the financial industry (banking) is a service industry, service industry how it can be understood as a cyclical industry?
, of course, you can also say that, within the fluctuation range of the national economy, any industry is a cyclical industry, because it was more or less subject to fluctuations in economic fluctuations. commercial, consumer goods and white wine categories and even the military class is no exception, even the service industry will also have periodic fluctuations. Could it be that the business will not be Maotai the volatility of economic fluctuations? Obviously, this is unrealistic. Maotai will still be fluctuations with the fluctuations in national economic development. So, why is not a cyclical industry Maotai ? Why do we not hear that last year when the banking industry is a cyclical industry, it?
Could it be that when the stock price rise is not a cyclical industry, the stock fell after it becomes a cyclical industry? What is the logic? not as good as even gangster logic!
banking is the king of all trades, but also businesses in the first, he is different from other industries characterized by its high ceilings high, medium and small banks in general is difficult to reach the ceiling in a short time. Bank industry to cyclical fluctuations in the traditional industry sectors the selection of different objects serve to smooth the volatility of economic fluctuations. In other words, the weakest banking is a cyclical industry, and most stable growth. Of course, here on the best show bankers or financiers of the operating level. Of course, because our banks are still young, the real, recognized banker has not yet appeared.
we can look sophisticated in the West market, which is a century-old high proportion of other industries or a high proportion of the banking industry? bankruptcy liquidation of a banking or other industries more and more?
We can also look at the case of listed companies in recent years, we, the banking sector, high and stable growth, or other industries?
This is real nonsense, nonsense typical.
Conclusion: In contrast, among all of our industry, the banking industry is the most stable, long-term the best growth of the industry. In China, there is no industry can be compared with the banking industry.
Second, the banking industry is a high risk industry, if the real estate bubble burst will bring disaster.
Yes Banking is a high risk industry, because of its characteristics is the operational risks of the industry. So, I have always said to invest in banking, business performance is not very major, and its asset quality and risk control is the real important factor. Therefore, radical management style is a double edged sword, in the same time to obtain maximum benefit latent risk, especially with the incentive mechanism in the next case. the United States subprime mortgage crisis is a ready example.
According to statistics, to the end of March 2008, the national commercial banks and foreign currency loans was 29.4 trillion yuan, a commercial real estate loans 5.01 trillion yuan, of which real estate development loans 1.8 trillion yuan (the total domestic banking system is about 6% of total loans), personal housing mortgage loans of 3.13 trillion yuan (accounting for the entire domestic banking system is about 11% of total loans). Although the real estate development and personal mortgage balance does not lead to the collapse of the banking sector, but Taking into account all the 07 listed banks only 287.7 billion yuan in total profits, as long as the development of mortgage loans and bad debt generated by 6%, enough to swallow the whole banking industry profits. The statistical data, if the real estate collective death, then indeed a disaster for the banking industry, at least several years of profit gone.
In fact, the risk of real estate loans, the main developer of this in a, and is formed in the second half of 2007 loans have certain risks, not all loans have a problem.
As for personal mortgage this one, I think that is a quality loans in the banking category. because the greatest risk mainly in the investment sector, mostly in the outskirts of the city's conceptual premises, but only in the price formation of the maximum time period that constitutes a substantial mortgage to stop for the phenomenon. Although it may seem like the absolute value not small, but I guess very, very small percentage will not exceed 1% of the overall mortgage. so, if the proportion of mortgages that stopped for about 1%, then the bank's performance is almost no impact. because of the current Bank lending in loans since, it has been extracted by 1% of bad debts. Moreover, the property was able to recover a portion of cash and then put a few bad not to be recovered Well, not last year's total The highest bid price is the future right?
Oh, we have to calculate the formation of the mortgage bank for the number of stop loss?
If a house is 100 square meters, priced 1 million square meters, total 100 million . Personal 30 million down payment, the bank 70 million mortgage. home prices fell 40% (ie 60 million at current prices) after the suspension, a non-performing assets. It should be said more or less the person has paid the mortgage for several months right? bank repossessed a house that can not be 50 million to be able to auction off? I think it should be no problem. then the bank is the loss of 20 million (does not consider part of the mortgage has been paid), then that is the loss of 20 million, compared to 70 million loan, the loss is 28.57%. Considering that this is within 1% of 28.57%, so this loss is from a very small amount. and, for banks, the losses consider the provision for bad debts have been inside. In other words, the profits being extracted in the main provision for bad debts is more than this proportion.
Conclusion: the risk of real estate will bring the risk of banking sector . But when the top has not become aware of the risk, because the level of policy makers. Moreover, risk control, good bank in the last year has been a conscious selection of developer loans, loans to the developer's control. Here , the test is the level of risk control.
Third, high oil prices will be the biggest risks our economy, if liberalized oil prices will cause serious economic recession.
Oh, this is an exaggerated assumption . Although the current high oil prices lead to rising prices will cause some difficulties in the real economy, but said that the formation of the national economy to an overstatement of a severe recession.
To illustrate this, we calculate the quantified the impact of high oil prices now.
basis, China's net imports of crude oil in 2007 159,280,000 tons, an increase of 14.7%.
according to China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association figures, in 2007 326,790,000 tons of crude oil in China, an increase of 6.4%, 6.3% in 2006 The growth rate was essentially flat.
According to statistics, in 2007 China's gasoline production was 59.94 million tons, up 7.2%; diesel production was 123.7 million tons, an increase of 6.2%.; kerosene output was 11,533,000 tons, an increase of 19 %.
2007-7-3 with China's oil import dependence is rising oil prices In 2003, the international price of oil still in the 25 U.S. dollars / barrel, by 2006, oil prices reached 65 dollars / barrel, the average annual increase in the $ 10 down. and the current price of oil has reached 70 U.S. dollars / barrel. We have seen Brent futures prices, the actual import price to be much lower than the Brent oil futures.
so be it, we calculate what the price of crude oil will affect many of our profits? 2007 is 159 million tons of net imports, in 2008 we imported 180 million tons for the calculation of the net, assuming that the net price of a barrel of crude oil imports up 30 dollars a ton about 7 barrels of crude oil, the dollar's exchange rate calculated in accordance with 1:6.80 . Guess it is to increase our gross cost 257 billion yuan (1.80 * 30 * 7 * 6.8).
07 years, our GDP was 26.177 trillion yuan, fiscal revenue at about 5.1 trillion yuan, the scale about corporate profits than in the 2.295 trillion yuan. The increase in the cost of crude oil increased by less than 1% of GDP, affecting about 10% of profits a little, about 5% of revenue, should we not afford it that cost? I was a little hard to believe. Even if the full subsidy, but also not much increase in the fiscal deficit. is not someone exaggerating?
course, I say this in full subsidy is only another way, because they do not consistent with the development of emission reduction objectives. is to make the price index stable and temporary intervention, will slowly return to nature. Just think, if we all let go of refined oil prices if crude oil prices suddenly dropped, then that also need to oil all of a sudden fall, but this does not meet the Chinese nation and the stability concept, does not conform to our concept of harmony.
we should understand that our total economic output has been large, and previously not mentioned in the same language requirements of our people is not high. So, as long as our political stability, the policy does not appear on the low-level errors, then, can have any difficulties. you do not believe, all right, we'll see!
Conclusion: High oil prices will increase the cost of the real economy will affect our real economy, but will not fundamentally affect the development of national economy.
received yesterday that the issue of real estate risk.
why the Government to suppress the stock market? Why should we control the overheated investment? Why should control the price rise? Why should implement a tight monetary policy? All this is to strive for stable development, for our long-term stable and rapid economic development can, in order to avoid the economic development ups and downs, to social development and harmony, to all aspects of the harmony. So, we can not say that the stock market decline, falling property prices, tight monetary policy, RMB appreciation internal devaluation of foreign, are the government. the government deliberately behavior, is governance. Government deliberately hit the brakes, through policy and public opinion to achieve steady long-term development. So when the real estate problems that, when found high oil prices will affect the economy, the economy turned down when The Government will amend policy, that is, put the brakes on efforts to put a little on it. In fact, this is our government. a very major functions of government. and we want to particularly strong management control, I hope both big and small in their grasp. Oh, yes, the right to not expire Well, anyone to do that.
we can think about, can we say the government. government hopes to economic problems? This can not be right ?
Fourth, if the economic downturn will lead to large bad debts, banks will fall into recession in the swamp.
Indeed, if the national economy has entered a financial crisis or recession or hyperinflation, then the banking sector do not be an exception, will inevitably bring about investment risk. But in the present case, the probability of how high? I personally think the probability is not high.
still so short, we are developing Our infrastructure is still very weak, our urbanization process is still ongoing, we are in the early stages of industrialization, we need huge investments to complete the process. in particular our transport, since the entire society investment enthusiasm, so the inhibition of the parties intentionally or unintentionally transport infrastructure, economic development has posed a bottleneck parts. If our economic development indeed may be declining, then the government. Government is bound to increase public investment to compensate for this defect, by relaxing control to promote the economic development investment.
digression here to say, once because of our investment in overheating, resulting in almost the whole of society industry overcapacity, so a few years ago to form the price level of depression. With the rapid development in recent years, excess capacity was basically balanced, so it caused the current price index started to rise. So, if economic growth could drop, then relax the investment is again a basis.
We can not say, our current government. Government and are not afraid of economic development or is likely to decline, but the fear of overheating, therefore, our current policy or economic development is to control overheating. When the level of economic development that may slow or may drop the case, then it will have revised policy, money supply, increased public investment to stimulate economic development.
or above sentence: lift that leg, relax the intensity of the brakes on it.
increase in the last central bank reserve ratio by 1% of the time, relevant departments of Development and Reform Commission to challenge the first time is a signal, we need to inflation and trade-offs between economic development. the attitude of recent high-level From the a signal? Why do some people turn a blind eye.
tell the truth, I have no ability to talk about it further, I do not want to talk about it more, after all, typing is not exercise the action, I'm lazy .
Conclusion: We believe in the wisdom of high-level, we believe the relevant decision-making capacity. in maintaining political stability, do not make a stupid mistake in the premise, I believe our economy is no problem. In order to maintain the stable development of all aspects of is the need to slow that growth rate only, chicken fart (gdp) growth rate remained at around 8% is no problem. You do not say that the growth rate of 8% is down, that is, recession, and this is the world's leading speed, and we do not necessarily bear all aspects of higher growth.
five, China's financial industry will enter a financial disintermediation process, the future will lead to interest rate competition, thus reducing the financial industry profit margins, causing the banking industry profits retrogression.
What is financial disintermediation, financial disintermediation of corporate entities working capital is not dependent on the bank, he can from bonds, stock market, and so various forms of partnership funding, or direct financing (banks loans are indirect financing, because banks, the intermediaries). so that the bank's money supply exceeds demand (or supply and demand), the bank raised interest rates competitive.
However, we should understand that this is the wealth of the whole society after the rich product. we are developing, we also poverty, we have not to this level. the current situation is that we thirst for funds, all aspects, including you and I are still short of money, otherwise, how could our moral values are ; all the money needs? or you look so-so enterprises in developed countries and the debt ratio debt ratio of China's enterprises will understand the problem of.
Sometimes I have to think about this question: Which of our professionals a comprehensive look at why can not problems, but always from a point to see full? always food of the western Pacific is not how how? Could it be that all education, prompting disaster? or a word that I said before: standing under the large banyan tree, affectionate to sigh with open arms: wow! A big piece of the forest!
Oh, I'm too lazy typing, and do not want in-depth analysis of the.
Conclusion: our economic society, the financial disintermediation a distant story, is not already present process can be achieved. It is a long story, not a 20 years 30 years is not up to the level of financial disintermediation, and we need not worry about this.
VI, China's banks to spread the main profit model, the current high interest rate environment in the future, narrowing the spread will cause a significant setback banking performance.
Oh, that this problem, I even saw some people say Our spread is the highest in the world to say, I do not know or is he ignorant of the problem? us look at the professional says so right.
2003, the major industrial countries one-year difference of 1.78% gross -3.59%, and Latin American countries, one-year gross margin difference of 3.82% -45.11%, and the transition countries (excluding China) one-year difference in gross margin between 3.60% -8.50%, while China's one-year difference between deposit and lending margins have been maintained since 2002 at 3.33%, significantly lower than the Latin American countries and countries in transition, the average level.
If at this stage of the institutional environment (1) of the commercial banks deposit and lending rates is completely determined by the market, and (2) The commercial banks are independent, self-financing, effective market players, then the interest rate of bank deposit and lending will be greater than current levels. Now our bank deposit and loan interest low difference is the result of government controls interest rates, lack of appropriate incentives for banks and the result of pricing power is our commitment to long-term cost of reform to the results of the banking industry. With the urgency of enhancing banking reform, in the interest of full market, we should first expansion of bank deposit and lending spreads, to ensure that our banks in accordance with the principles of international standards and prudent provision for bad loans and supplementary capital, while creating a reasonable return on capital, so that our banks in the market environment in order to survive, for banks market-oriented interest rate reform and create the necessary conditions, but also for banks in China to meet the challenge of foreign banks to prepare.
countries deal with economic recession and financial crisis, brought about the risks of banks generally have two ways. Some countries (such as the United States other traditional developed countries) to banks when the economy is to maintain a large deposit and loan net interest margin, which can accumulate enough for bad debts and capital, to prepare for a recession or financial crisis through. Another way is to As usual accumulation is not enough, some countries (such as South Korea and other newly industrialized countries) in the bank through the recession or savings and loan crisis of the high net interest margin to compensate for the losses during the recession or crisis.
second method is the cost of the above high. First, as usual is not enough accumulation of a large number of banks in economic recession or collapse of the financial crisis, economic recession or financial crisis to worsen the Asian financial crisis of .1997 is an example. Second, in order to prevent banks and Other large financial institutions collapse, governments in economic recession or financial crisis, often forced to bail during the near collapse of the banks, the government's fiscal deficit or inflation increases the risk of prejudice to the normal economic recovery, and increase the moral hazard of banks . Third, the recession or savings and loan crisis of the high net interest margins tend to dampen economic recovery, increasing the difficulty of economic recovery, elongated recession or crisis, a devastating effect on the economy.
observation of a State Bank The savings and loan net interest margin, should observe a long period of change and the average level, and can not just when the economy level. Now, they say, the past two years China's four major state-owned banks tens of billions of annual profits, it seems Lee too bad. This argument has two problems. First, the four state-owned banks have not in accordance with the principles of international standards and prudent provision for bad loans and supplementary capital; if the four state-owned banks in accordance with the principles of international prudential standards and poor Loan provisions and supplementary capital, they will not have tens of billions in profits. Second, the economy is the economy now is the time; we can not because the bank when the economy is profit and forget the economic recession or financial crisis of the banking system may face tremendous difficulties and risks. We should learn from the United States and other developed countries, when the economy is to maintain a large bank deposits and net interest margin, allowing banks to bad debts and accumulate enough capital to prepare for a recession or financial crisis ride out the storm, to prevent large-scale emergence of banking and financial crisis.
Finally, at this stage, China's banking deposit and lending interest rate depends on the intensity of political decision-making. expand the deposit and lending spreads may touch some of the interest groups interests, but in the long-term national interests and the interests of some interest groups among the short-term, our choice should be very clear.
(author of Treaty and Law Department of the People's Bank of China Deputy Director)
good , this issue I will not say to it for analysis to this article.
seven, asymmetric rate hikes, causing a significant decline in profitability of the banking industry.
asymmetric interest rate, which is to say recently Most of the topic, but also a strong bearish bank shares fall, a week Powei bank shares fell, because rumors of a rate hike due to asymmetry. leads to three questions in here, certainly asymmetric interest rate (usually people say asymmetry is reduced interest rate spreads) it? asymmetric interest rate spreads can expand it? asymmetric interest rates to bank stock performance will surely lead you down?
asymmetric interest rate (narrow spread) is the theoretical basis, the current high prices, the deposit interest rates can not cover the price index; loans high interest rates, lucrative banking sector, real economy of death. Yes, that yes, there is some truth, but not necessarily asymmetric reason to raise interest rates.
1, first we have to see whether interest rates on deposits covered by the price index problem. We know that, in general, the interest rate long-term bonds can cover the price index rose, but certainly one-year deposit interest rate the interest rate will be lower than long-term bonds. then it means that one-year deposit rate would not necessarily have to cover the rising price index. In other words, from the long-term perspective, one-year deposit interest rate is lower than the price index The. If you say that we must rise when the price index covering this up, does it mean when the price index fell negative interest rates we achieved? I think you do not agree with it? so, the deposit rate lower than or price index that lags behind the rise in deposit rates is the proper meaning, it is no surprise the problem.
2, now we need to prevent the entry of international hot money, the international hot money into China, their goal to two points, one spread, the second is the exchange rate. If we raise the deposit interest rate, then the spread will cause expansion of the two countries, it will result in more international hot money into it? This is already very headache things we have need to continue to exacerbate the headache?, of course, the people can not take that into consideration, but the central bank does not consider that his misconduct.
3, the current bank loan interest rates are high business stand out? by I do not entirely. Otherwise, why the current limitations in the case of credit lines can improve the real interest rate? why the current cost of capital substantially higher than underground bank interest rate? So, I have always said that the current development of China is a countries, enterprises have a thirst for capital, entrepreneurs are not sensitive to interest rates. This is completely different with the Western developed countries markets.
4, raising interest rates, there are basically two purposes, one for price index rose to give people subsidies, and second, inhibition of smooth price increases consumer desires. raise the deposit rates is aimed at curbing consumption of the people desire to smooth price increases; to raise lending rates is intended to control demand for business investment, thereby reducing prices; this two rate hikes to stabilize prices for the same effect. So why can not we raise a little more than lending rates, deposit interest rates a little less to improve, continue to expand the spread? Of course, this is just my logic on analysis, real interest rate spreads for the implementation of expansion is almost impossible.
5, last year was six times as interest rates, narrowing spreads about 0.54%. But the profitability of banks has decreased or increased a? this we can learn from the recent increase in bank shares advance notice can understand, and I did not need to say much more. to early in the year, had a lot about this issue, as spreads narrowed, 08 years of banking stocks results will form a negative growth. do not know when they see so many pre-increase announcement after what do you think? I estimated to have forgotten it? where people ignore the demand deposits of this very important factor, because the bank had deposits of about half of current deposits, but not synchronize demand deposits and interest rates, so the surface appears to be narrowing the spreads, and its essence is to expand the spread.
here, say an aside, spreads on the surface of relatively developed countries small, but their is almost no interest on demand deposits, so their actual spread is not small.
Conclusion: The asymmetric impact of interest rates for bank specific analysis required for the different effects on different banks , just as banks in the deposit structure is different, can not be generalized. asymmetric narrowing interest rate spreads are not necessarily more likely to expand the spread.
eight, raising the deposit reserve ratio will increase the banking costs, causing a sharp drop in bank performance.
Yes, raising the deposit reserve ratio will indeed improve the bank's operating costs, or the compression bank profit margins, but this is not too great. Because of the loan line management of the situation, the reserve ratio increase and not reduce the bank's loans, working capital is reduced, the bank's other operating funds of the profitability is not high, relatively speaking, the spread income of about around 2%, or a little less than 2%. Currently the interest rate if the reserve ratio is 1.98%, the bank's interest income of other working capital at about 4%.
I will take the people's livelihood, for example, calculations If the reserve ratio increase of 1%, how much will affect profitability?
livelihood of total deposits in 2007 was 670 billion yuan, 800 billion in 2008 to as calculated on the basis of 1% for each additional reserve ratio, then that is reduced by 80 million working capital, calculated in accordance with the spread of 2%, then that is of interest income 160 million yuan, all of this even as profits it, then the net profit was 120 million, affecting the livelihood of 0.0064 yuan per share, net profit , which is the livelihood of about 1% of net profit, really does not matter.
Conclusion: to raise the deposit reserve ratio will increase the operating costs of the banking sector, causing a sharp drop in bank performance is exaggerated conclusions. There impact, but small.
September, the subprime mortgage crisis outside the Bank of China show a high risk, due to lack of capacity of domestic banks, the risk is self-evident.
Yes, this time the bank shares fall , and the psychological factor is also there a lot, because those who watched the face of large international banks such risks, many of them are hundred years old yet. with these internationally renowned banks are difficult to avoid the risk, for Our banks are inexperienced, would not be at greater risk thing.
Here, we should understand that the developed countries banks and the nature of our banking business is not the same, they are mixed operation, the developed countries banks innovative products for those dazzling, to be honest I do also not clear, and nearly half of them are in high-risk profits in other businesses (the so-called non-interest income) generated. Those bankers, in order to obtain over the incentive to strive for in the profit of those derivatives. high yield means high risk, which is the characteristics of foreign banks.
you think about it, they can be full when the mortgage loan, but you can discount the beginning, You can also buy a car with the money (that is, the market price of the house can be 100 million mortgage 1,100,000). When the house after the appreciation, you can continue to price loans out of the money you spend. in our country This can be you?
in us, the parties concerned to help the banks to control risk, in principle, does not allow mixed operation, which had a natural barrier against the risk. Some time ago, some people say that our banks industry profit model of a single, risk-resisting ability is not strong and so on. Now the sound is not enough child?
Oh, well, I do not want to start this topic, and otherwise it is endless. I those who think we do not like foot-binding cloth type stuff it.
Conclusion: The different business models, risk naturally different, this is not comparable.
ten, the international community and given the valuation of bank shares not high, most of the 2 times book value, price-earnings ratio of 15 times, our valuation of banking stocks too high.
for this problem, we ...
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Counsel for the end of double-income-bdcherry200712 by trade unions
Labor and Social Security Department: Many members of the public concern. reporter learned from the labor security department, fight.
provisions must be paid. But the current circumstances, the majority of units in the year-end awards are in respect of the employment contract expressly provided, must be paid. point of interpretation, or regulations should be committed to fulfill the contract.
tax experts: two have to pay a tax for all tax offices CTA
Wuhan Jiang Xu Xinsheng introduced, according to the State Administration of Taxation State organs, institutions, enterprises and other units at the end of the tenth month of the wage distribution, workers thus made the . monthly income is 3,000 yuan, but he should pay less income tax to 1,600 yuan to 3,000 yuan, 1,400 yuan and then multiplied by the remaining tax rate. According to A more obvious difference, but the , although the clear that the employer shall establish and improve labor rules and regulations, ensure that laborers enjoy the rights and perform labor obligations. employer in the formulation, modification, or decide on the labor remuneration, working hours, rest and vacation, labor safety and hygiene, insurance benefits, staff training, work discipline or work quota management, etc. directly related to the interests of workers, rules and regulations or material matter, shall be subject to employee representative congress or all the employees for discussion, put forward a proposal and comments, with the trade union or employee representative equal consultation.
regulations and decisions on major issues in the implementation process, the union or the employees that inappropriate, the employer has the right to make, modify or improve them through consultation.
employer shall be directly related to the interests of workers, rules and regulations and decisions on major issues of publicity, or inform the workers.
Yajun explained that workers can take the training, work discipline or work quota management, etc. directly related to the interests of workers, rules and regulations or grave matter double pay According to reports, both of which are the range of remuneration, all belong to the scope of the payroll, but there are significant differences between the two. year end double pay is a fixed payment of wages, in fact, pay. It is generally determined by the amount paid, time and manner of payment is determined, usually by the end of last month as the standard. end of the year award is a reward, the employee's excess annual remuneration of labor, usually at the annual staff appraisal work based on the appraisal results issued accordingly, its purpose is to appraise the work of staff throughout the year.
present, Award is the most of the units will be issued at the end of a one-time funding.
provisions must be paid. But the current circumstances, the majority of units in the year-end awards are in respect of the employment contract expressly provided, must be paid. point of interpretation, or regulations should be committed to fulfill the contract.
tax experts: two have to pay a tax for all tax offices CTA
Wuhan Jiang Xu Xinsheng introduced, according to the State Administration of Taxation State organs, institutions, enterprises and other units at the end of the tenth month of the wage distribution, workers thus made the . monthly income is 3,000 yuan, but he should pay less income tax to 1,600 yuan to 3,000 yuan, 1,400 yuan and then multiplied by the remaining tax rate. According to A more obvious difference, but the , although the clear that the employer shall establish and improve labor rules and regulations, ensure that laborers enjoy the rights and perform labor obligations. employer in the formulation, modification, or decide on the labor remuneration, working hours, rest and vacation, labor safety and hygiene, insurance benefits, staff training, work discipline or work quota management, etc. directly related to the interests of workers, rules and regulations or material matter, shall be subject to employee representative congress or all the employees for discussion, put forward a proposal and comments, with the trade union or employee representative equal consultation.
regulations and decisions on major issues in the implementation process, the union or the employees that inappropriate, the employer has the right to make, modify or improve them through consultation.
employer shall be directly related to the interests of workers, rules and regulations and decisions on major issues of publicity, or inform the workers.
Yajun explained that workers can take the training, work discipline or work quota management, etc. directly related to the interests of workers, rules and regulations or grave matter double pay According to reports, both of which are the range of remuneration, all belong to the scope of the payroll, but there are significant differences between the two. year end double pay is a fixed payment of wages, in fact, pay. It is generally determined by the amount paid, time and manner of payment is determined, usually by the end of last month as the standard. end of the year award is a reward, the employee's excess annual remuneration of labor, usually at the annual staff appraisal work based on the appraisal results issued accordingly, its purpose is to appraise the work of staff throughout the year.
present, Award is the most of the units will be issued at the end of a one-time funding.
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