Negative factor for the future of the banking industry levy - Sina User Reviews

 Sina User 2008-07-05 17:41:51 in the 282 F) Re: the future of the negative factors in the banking industry levy
me I view it (I am eighteen years at the bank, a joint-stock bank in any of the current vice president)
1, banks do annual profit, in fact next year's profits had been the lowest in twenty percent or so, there is no problem in five years. If a sudden substantial increase in profit is definitely the stimulus of external factors (such as changes in tax and other factors)
2, each of the bank loan are put Accounting mention a certain proportion of bad debt reserve fund, if the provision of a bank is much more clear the bad debts in the collection or recovery of loans, before provision of reserves to a current profit, to some extent, the provisions cover a high bank profits may also be the future high rate may be bad now appears the bank, with the passage of time collection and disposal, could be transformed into a profit, is the so-called rotten ships, three thousand nails, nail Sell also can make money
3, issued by banks in each of the business indicators (including the deposit and loan size, the middle of the business, profit, etc.) is higher than the previous year by thirty to forty percent issued in proportion to the bank There is a saying, every year in mid-sad too, every year passes are good, as long as the mental decline, way better than more difficult. The task increases every year, but in the system, there are able to fulfill the mission of the line (the lowest percentage of completion Ninety per), but there are always lines to complete the task (up to complete the one hundred and thirty percent), together, about thirty percent growth is assured.
4, there is a important factor is the establishment of new outlets, in general, the establishment of a new network (branch level), then flat, generally the second year will have three million profit, after five years to a peak of about 200 million won in , we calculate, how many years of growth. In addition to the establishment of branches of the network level, there are branches of the network, consider this a chicken and egg patterns, there will be any problems with growth.
5, the banking industry, although operational risk, but the line my wife seems not the case, the head office if you want to open a new branch, only to do three things, to find President, engraved seals, millions of offering a uniform fees, only this and nothing, as the law of the development bank, 5 years to reach the peak, usually around 25 billion in deposits and capital profits of about one percent, how can we talk about good business to do so, five 20-fold return on investment, again a bit deeper, a little afraid of what bad, the bigger the denominator on the line, five cups, lids 10 can be, worry about?
today a little more soil, no data analysis, data authenticity can not always reliable, so simple to talk about bank earnings growth, so that we have a perceptual awareness.
Posted by anonymous - 2008-7-5
Note: On the banks know the old shareholders
First, banking is a cyclical industry, its performance is even greater than other typical fluctuations in the cyclical industry.
in the present, as many professionals in the financial industry are classified in a cyclical industry, and even the strong cyclical industry? I am puzzled, the financial industry (banking) is a service industry, service industry how it can be understood as a cyclical industry?
, of course, you can also say that, within the fluctuation range of the national economy, any industry is a cyclical industry, because it was more or less subject to fluctuations in economic fluctuations. commercial, consumer goods and white wine categories and even the military class is no exception, even the service industry will also have periodic fluctuations. Could it be that the business will not be Maotai the volatility of economic fluctuations? Obviously, this is unrealistic. Maotai will still be fluctuations with the fluctuations in national economic development. So, why is not a cyclical industry Maotai ? Why do we not hear that last year when the banking industry is a cyclical industry, it?
Could it be that when the stock price rise is not a cyclical industry, the stock fell after it becomes a cyclical industry? What is the logic? not as good as even gangster logic!
banking is the king of all trades, but also businesses in the first, he is different from other industries characterized by its high ceilings high, medium and small banks in general is difficult to reach the ceiling in a short time. Bank industry to cyclical fluctuations in the traditional industry sectors the selection of different objects serve to smooth the volatility of economic fluctuations. In other words, the weakest banking is a cyclical industry, and most stable growth. Of course, here on the best show bankers or financiers of the operating level. Of course, because our banks are still young, the real, recognized banker has not yet appeared.
we can look sophisticated in the West market, which is a century-old high proportion of other industries or a high proportion of the banking industry? bankruptcy liquidation of a banking or other industries more and more?
We can also look at the case of listed companies in recent years, we, the banking sector, high and stable growth, or other industries?
This is real nonsense, nonsense typical.
Conclusion: In contrast, among all of our industry, the banking industry is the most stable, long-term the best growth of the industry. In China, there is no industry can be compared with the banking industry.
Second, the banking industry is a high risk industry, if the real estate bubble burst will bring disaster.
Yes Banking is a high risk industry, because of its characteristics is the operational risks of the industry. So, I have always said to invest in banking, business performance is not very major, and its asset quality and risk control is the real important factor. Therefore, radical management style is a double edged sword, in the same time to obtain maximum benefit latent risk, especially with the incentive mechanism in the next case. the United States subprime mortgage crisis is a ready example.
According to statistics, to the end of March 2008, the national commercial banks and foreign currency loans was 29.4 trillion yuan, a commercial real estate loans 5.01 trillion yuan, of which real estate development loans 1.8 trillion yuan (the total domestic banking system is about 6% of total loans), personal housing mortgage loans of 3.13 trillion yuan (accounting for the entire domestic banking system is about 11% of total loans). Although the real estate development and personal mortgage balance does not lead to the collapse of the banking sector, but Taking into account all the 07 listed banks only 287.7 billion yuan in total profits, as long as the development of mortgage loans and bad debt generated by 6%, enough to swallow the whole banking industry profits. The statistical data, if the real estate collective death, then indeed a disaster for the banking industry, at least several years of profit gone.
In fact, the risk of real estate loans, the main developer of this in a, and is formed in the second half of 2007 loans have certain risks, not all loans have a problem.
As for personal mortgage this one, I think that is a quality loans in the banking category. because the greatest risk mainly in the investment sector, mostly in the outskirts of the city's conceptual premises, but only in the price formation of the maximum time period that constitutes a substantial mortgage to stop for the phenomenon. Although it may seem like the absolute value not small, but I guess very, very small percentage will not exceed 1% of the overall mortgage. so, if the proportion of mortgages that stopped for about 1%, then the bank's performance is almost no impact. because of the current Bank lending in loans since, it has been extracted by 1% of bad debts. Moreover, the property was able to recover a portion of cash and then put a few bad not to be recovered Well, not last year's total The highest bid price is the future right?
Oh, we have to calculate the formation of the mortgage bank for the number of stop loss?
If a house is 100 square meters, priced 1 million square meters, total 100 million . Personal 30 million down payment, the bank 70 million mortgage. home prices fell 40% (ie 60 million at current prices) after the suspension, a non-performing assets. It should be said more or less the person has paid the mortgage for several months right? bank repossessed a house that can not be 50 million to be able to auction off? I think it should be no problem. then the bank is the loss of 20 million (does not consider part of the mortgage has been paid), then that is the loss of 20 million, compared to 70 million loan, the loss is 28.57%. Considering that this is within 1% of 28.57%, so this loss is from a very small amount. and, for banks, the losses consider the provision for bad debts have been inside. In other words, the profits being extracted in the main provision for bad debts is more than this proportion.
Conclusion: the risk of real estate will bring the risk of banking sector . But when the top has not become aware of the risk, because the level of policy makers. Moreover, risk control, good bank in the last year has been a conscious selection of developer loans, loans to the developer's control. Here , the test is the level of risk control.
Third, high oil prices will be the biggest risks our economy, if liberalized oil prices will cause serious economic recession.
Oh, this is an exaggerated assumption . Although the current high oil prices lead to rising prices will cause some difficulties in the real economy, but said that the formation of the national economy to an overstatement of a severe recession.
To illustrate this, we calculate the quantified the impact of high oil prices now.
basis, China's net imports of crude oil in 2007 159,280,000 tons, an increase of 14.7%.
according to China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association figures, in 2007 326,790,000 tons of crude oil in China, an increase of 6.4%, 6.3% in 2006 The growth rate was essentially flat.
According to statistics, in 2007 China's gasoline production was 59.94 million tons, up 7.2%; diesel production was 123.7 million tons, an increase of 6.2%.; kerosene output was 11,533,000 tons, an increase of 19 %.
2007-7-3 with China's oil import dependence is rising oil prices In 2003, the international price of oil still in the 25 U.S. dollars / barrel, by 2006, oil prices reached 65 dollars / barrel, the average annual increase in the $ 10 down. and the current price of oil has reached 70 U.S. dollars / barrel. We have seen Brent futures prices, the actual import price to be much lower than the Brent oil futures.
so be it, we calculate what the price of crude oil will affect many of our profits? 2007 is 159 million tons of net imports, in 2008 we imported 180 million tons for the calculation of the net, assuming that the net price of a barrel of crude oil imports up 30 dollars a ton about 7 barrels of crude oil, the dollar's exchange rate calculated in accordance with 1:6.80 . Guess it is to increase our gross cost 257 billion yuan (1.80 * 30 * 7 * 6.8).
07 years, our GDP was 26.177 trillion yuan, fiscal revenue at about 5.1 trillion yuan, the scale about corporate profits than in the 2.295 trillion yuan. The increase in the cost of crude oil increased by less than 1% of GDP, affecting about 10% of profits a little, about 5% of revenue, should we not afford it that cost? I was a little hard to believe. Even if the full subsidy, but also not much increase in the fiscal deficit. is not someone exaggerating?
course, I say this in full subsidy is only another way, because they do not consistent with the development of emission reduction objectives. is to make the price index stable and temporary intervention, will slowly return to nature. Just think, if we all let go of refined oil prices if crude oil prices suddenly dropped, then that also need to oil all of a sudden fall, but this does not meet the Chinese nation and the stability concept, does not conform to our concept of harmony.
we should understand that our total economic output has been large, and previously not mentioned in the same language requirements of our people is not high. So, as long as our political stability, the policy does not appear on the low-level errors, then, can have any difficulties. you do not believe, all right, we'll see!
Conclusion: High oil prices will increase the cost of the real economy will affect our real economy, but will not fundamentally affect the development of national economy.
received yesterday that the issue of real estate risk.
why the Government to suppress the stock market? Why should we control the overheated investment? Why should control the price rise? Why should implement a tight monetary policy? All this is to strive for stable development, for our long-term stable and rapid economic development can, in order to avoid the economic development ups and downs, to social development and harmony, to all aspects of the harmony. So, we can not say that the stock market decline, falling property prices, tight monetary policy, RMB appreciation internal devaluation of foreign, are the government. the government deliberately behavior, is governance. Government deliberately hit the brakes, through policy and public opinion to achieve steady long-term development. So when the real estate problems that, when found high oil prices will affect the economy, the economy turned down when The Government will amend policy, that is, put the brakes on efforts to put a little on it. In fact, this is our government. a very major functions of government. and we want to particularly strong management control, I hope both big and small in their grasp. Oh, yes, the right to not expire Well, anyone to do that.
we can think about, can we say the government. government hopes to economic problems? This can not be right ?
Fourth, if the economic downturn will lead to large bad debts, banks will fall into recession in the swamp.
Indeed, if the national economy has entered a financial crisis or recession or hyperinflation, then the banking sector do not be an exception, will inevitably bring about investment risk. But in the present case, the probability of how high? I personally think the probability is not high.
still so short, we are developing Our infrastructure is still very weak, our urbanization process is still ongoing, we are in the early stages of industrialization, we need huge investments to complete the process. in particular our transport, since the entire society investment enthusiasm, so the inhibition of the parties intentionally or unintentionally transport infrastructure, economic development has posed a bottleneck parts. If our economic development indeed may be declining, then the government. Government is bound to increase public investment to compensate for this defect, by relaxing control to promote the economic development investment.
digression here to say, once because of our investment in overheating, resulting in almost the whole of society industry overcapacity, so a few years ago to form the price level of depression. With the rapid development in recent years, excess capacity was basically balanced, so it caused the current price index started to rise. So, if economic growth could drop, then relax the investment is again a basis.
We can not say, our current government. Government and are not afraid of economic development or is likely to decline, but the fear of overheating, therefore, our current policy or economic development is to control overheating. When the level of economic development that may slow or may drop the case, then it will have revised policy, money supply, increased public investment to stimulate economic development.
or above sentence: lift that leg, relax the intensity of the brakes on it.
increase in the last central bank reserve ratio by 1% of the time, relevant departments of Development and Reform Commission to challenge the first time is a signal, we need to inflation and trade-offs between economic development. the attitude of recent high-level From the a signal? Why do some people turn a blind eye.
tell the truth, I have no ability to talk about it further, I do not want to talk about it more, after all, typing is not exercise the action, I'm lazy .
Conclusion: We believe in the wisdom of high-level, we believe the relevant decision-making capacity. in maintaining political stability, do not make a stupid mistake in the premise, I believe our economy is no problem. In order to maintain the stable development of all aspects of is the need to slow that growth rate only, chicken fart (gdp) growth rate remained at around 8% is no problem. You do not say that the growth rate of 8% is down, that is, recession, and this is the world's leading speed, and we do not necessarily bear all aspects of higher growth.
five, China's financial industry will enter a financial disintermediation process, the future will lead to interest rate competition, thus reducing the financial industry profit margins, causing the banking industry profits retrogression.
What is financial disintermediation, financial disintermediation of corporate entities working capital is not dependent on the bank, he can from bonds, stock market, and so various forms of partnership funding, or direct financing (banks loans are indirect financing, because banks, the intermediaries). so that the bank's money supply exceeds demand (or supply and demand), the bank raised interest rates competitive.
However, we should understand that this is the wealth of the whole society after the rich product. we are developing, we also poverty, we have not to this level. the current situation is that we thirst for funds, all aspects, including you and I are still short of money, otherwise, how could our moral values are ; all the money needs? or you look so-so enterprises in developed countries and the debt ratio debt ratio of China's enterprises will understand the problem of.
Sometimes I have to think about this question: Which of our professionals a comprehensive look at why can not problems, but always from a point to see full? always food of the western Pacific is not how how? Could it be that all education, prompting disaster? or a word that I said before: standing under the large banyan tree, affectionate to sigh with open arms: wow! A big piece of the forest!
Oh, I'm too lazy typing, and do not want in-depth analysis of the.
Conclusion: our economic society, the financial disintermediation a distant story, is not already present process can be achieved. It is a long story, not a 20 years 30 years is not up to the level of financial disintermediation, and we need not worry about this.
VI, China's banks to spread the main profit model, the current high interest rate environment in the future, narrowing the spread will cause a significant setback banking performance.
Oh, that this problem, I even saw some people say Our spread is the highest in the world to say, I do not know or is he ignorant of the problem? us look at the professional says so right.
2003, the major industrial countries one-year difference of 1.78% gross -3.59%, and Latin American countries, one-year gross margin difference of 3.82% -45.11%, and the transition countries (excluding China) one-year difference in gross margin between 3.60% -8.50%, while China's one-year difference between deposit and lending margins have been maintained since 2002 at 3.33%, significantly lower than the Latin American countries and countries in transition, the average level.
If at this stage of the institutional environment (1) of the commercial banks deposit and lending rates is completely determined by the market, and (2) The commercial banks are independent, self-financing, effective market players, then the interest rate of bank deposit and lending will be greater than current levels. Now our bank deposit and loan interest low difference is the result of government controls interest rates, lack of appropriate incentives for banks and the result of pricing power is our commitment to long-term cost of reform to the results of the banking industry. With the urgency of enhancing banking reform, in the interest of full market, we should first expansion of bank deposit and lending spreads, to ensure that our banks in accordance with the principles of international standards and prudent provision for bad loans and supplementary capital, while creating a reasonable return on capital, so that our banks in the market environment in order to survive, for banks market-oriented interest rate reform and create the necessary conditions, but also for banks in China to meet the challenge of foreign banks to prepare.
countries deal with economic recession and financial crisis, brought about the risks of banks generally have two ways. Some countries (such as the United States other traditional developed countries) to banks when the economy is to maintain a large deposit and loan net interest margin, which can accumulate enough for bad debts and capital, to prepare for a recession or financial crisis through. Another way is to As usual accumulation is not enough, some countries (such as South Korea and other newly industrialized countries) in the bank through the recession or savings and loan crisis of the high net interest margin to compensate for the losses during the recession or crisis.
second method is the cost of the above high. First, as usual is not enough accumulation of a large number of banks in economic recession or collapse of the financial crisis, economic recession or financial crisis to worsen the Asian financial crisis of .1997 is an example. Second, in order to prevent banks and Other large financial institutions collapse, governments in economic recession or financial crisis, often forced to bail during the near collapse of the banks, the government's fiscal deficit or inflation increases the risk of prejudice to the normal economic recovery, and increase the moral hazard of banks . Third, the recession or savings and loan crisis of the high net interest margins tend to dampen economic recovery, increasing the difficulty of economic recovery, elongated recession or crisis, a devastating effect on the economy.
observation of a State Bank The savings and loan net interest margin, should observe a long period of change and the average level, and can not just when the economy level. Now, they say, the past two years China's four major state-owned banks tens of billions of annual profits, it seems Lee too bad. This argument has two problems. First, the four state-owned banks have not in accordance with the principles of international standards and prudent provision for bad loans and supplementary capital; if the four state-owned banks in accordance with the principles of international prudential standards and poor Loan provisions and supplementary capital, they will not have tens of billions in profits. Second, the economy is the economy now is the time; we can not because the bank when the economy is profit and forget the economic recession or financial crisis of the banking system may face tremendous difficulties and risks. We should learn from the United States and other developed countries, when the economy is to maintain a large bank deposits and net interest margin, allowing banks to bad debts and accumulate enough capital to prepare for a recession or financial crisis ride out the storm, to prevent large-scale emergence of banking and financial crisis.
Finally, at this stage, China's banking deposit and lending interest rate depends on the intensity of political decision-making. expand the deposit and lending spreads may touch some of the interest groups interests, but in the long-term national interests and the interests of some interest groups among the short-term, our choice should be very clear.
(author of Treaty and Law Department of the People's Bank of China Deputy Director)
good , this issue I will not say to it for analysis to this article.
seven, asymmetric rate hikes, causing a significant decline in profitability of the banking industry.
asymmetric interest rate, which is to say recently Most of the topic, but also a strong bearish bank shares fall, a week Powei bank shares fell, because rumors of a rate hike due to asymmetry. leads to three questions in here, certainly asymmetric interest rate (usually people say asymmetry is reduced interest rate spreads) it? asymmetric interest rate spreads can expand it? asymmetric interest rates to bank stock performance will surely lead you down?
asymmetric interest rate (narrow spread) is the theoretical basis, the current high prices, the deposit interest rates can not cover the price index; loans high interest rates, lucrative banking sector, real economy of death. Yes, that yes, there is some truth, but not necessarily asymmetric reason to raise interest rates.
1, first we have to see whether interest rates on deposits covered by the price index problem. We know that, in general, the interest rate long-term bonds can cover the price index rose, but certainly one-year deposit interest rate the interest rate will be lower than long-term bonds. then it means that one-year deposit rate would not necessarily have to cover the rising price index. In other words, from the long-term perspective, one-year deposit interest rate is lower than the price index The. If you say that we must rise when the price index covering this up, does it mean when the price index fell negative interest rates we achieved? I think you do not agree with it? so, the deposit rate lower than or price index that lags behind the rise in deposit rates is the proper meaning, it is no surprise the problem.
2, now we need to prevent the entry of international hot money, the international hot money into China, their goal to two points, one spread, the second is the exchange rate. If we raise the deposit interest rate, then the spread will cause expansion of the two countries, it will result in more international hot money into it? This is already very headache things we have need to continue to exacerbate the headache?, of course, the people can not take that into consideration, but the central bank does not consider that his misconduct.
3, the current bank loan interest rates are high business stand out? by I do not entirely. Otherwise, why the current limitations in the case of credit lines can improve the real interest rate? why the current cost of capital substantially higher than underground bank interest rate? So, I have always said that the current development of China is a countries, enterprises have a thirst for capital, entrepreneurs are not sensitive to interest rates. This is completely different with the Western developed countries markets.
4, raising interest rates, there are basically two purposes, one for price index rose to give people subsidies, and second, inhibition of smooth price increases consumer desires. raise the deposit rates is aimed at curbing consumption of the people desire to smooth price increases; to raise lending rates is intended to control demand for business investment, thereby reducing prices; this two rate hikes to stabilize prices for the same effect. So why can not we raise a little more than lending rates, deposit interest rates a little less to improve, continue to expand the spread? Of course, this is just my logic on analysis, real interest rate spreads for the implementation of expansion is almost impossible.
5, last year was six times as interest rates, narrowing spreads about 0.54%. But the profitability of banks has decreased or increased a? this we can learn from the recent increase in bank shares advance notice can understand, and I did not need to say much more. to early in the year, had a lot about this issue, as spreads narrowed, 08 years of banking stocks results will form a negative growth. do not know when they see so many pre-increase announcement after what do you think? I estimated to have forgotten it? where people ignore the demand deposits of this very important factor, because the bank had deposits of about half of current deposits, but not synchronize demand deposits and interest rates, so the surface appears to be narrowing the spreads, and its essence is to expand the spread.
here, say an aside, spreads on the surface of relatively developed countries small, but their is almost no interest on demand deposits, so their actual spread is not small.
Conclusion: The asymmetric impact of interest rates for bank specific analysis required for the different effects on different banks , just as banks in the deposit structure is different, can not be generalized. asymmetric narrowing interest rate spreads are not necessarily more likely to expand the spread.
eight, raising the deposit reserve ratio will increase the banking costs, causing a sharp drop in bank performance.
Yes, raising the deposit reserve ratio will indeed improve the bank's operating costs, or the compression bank profit margins, but this is not too great. Because of the loan line management of the situation, the reserve ratio increase and not reduce the bank's loans, working capital is reduced, the bank's other operating funds of the profitability is not high, relatively speaking, the spread income of about around 2%, or a little less than 2%. Currently the interest rate if the reserve ratio is 1.98%, the bank's interest income of other working capital at about 4%.
I will take the people's livelihood, for example, calculations If the reserve ratio increase of 1%, how much will affect profitability?
livelihood of total deposits in 2007 was 670 billion yuan, 800 billion in 2008 to as calculated on the basis of 1% for each additional reserve ratio, then that is reduced by 80 million working capital, calculated in accordance with the spread of 2%, then that is of interest income 160 million yuan, all of this even as profits it, then the net profit was 120 million, affecting the livelihood of 0.0064 yuan per share, net profit , which is the livelihood of about 1% of net profit, really does not matter.
Conclusion: to raise the deposit reserve ratio will increase the operating costs of the banking sector, causing a sharp drop in bank performance is exaggerated conclusions. There impact, but small.
September, the subprime mortgage crisis outside the Bank of China show a high risk, due to lack of capacity of domestic banks, the risk is self-evident.
Yes, this time the bank shares fall , and the psychological factor is also there a lot, because those who watched the face of large international banks such risks, many of them are hundred years old yet. with these internationally renowned banks are difficult to avoid the risk, for Our banks are inexperienced, would not be at greater risk thing.
Here, we should understand that the developed countries banks and the nature of our banking business is not the same, they are mixed operation, the developed countries banks innovative products for those dazzling, to be honest I do also not clear, and nearly half of them are in high-risk profits in other businesses (the so-called non-interest income) generated. Those bankers, in order to obtain over the incentive to strive for in the profit of those derivatives. high yield means high risk, which is the characteristics of foreign banks.
you think about it, they can be full when the mortgage loan, but you can discount the beginning, You can also buy a car with the money (that is, the market price of the house can be 100 million mortgage 1,100,000). When the house after the appreciation, you can continue to price loans out of the money you spend. in our country This can be you?
in us, the parties concerned to help the banks to control risk, in principle, does not allow mixed operation, which had a natural barrier against the risk. Some time ago, some people say that our banks industry profit model of a single, risk-resisting ability is not strong and so on. Now the sound is not enough child?
Oh, well, I do not want to start this topic, and otherwise it is endless. I those who think we do not like foot-binding cloth type stuff it.
Conclusion: The different business models, risk naturally different, this is not comparable.
ten, the international community and given the valuation of bank shares not high, most of the 2 times book value, price-earnings ratio of 15 times, our valuation of banking stocks too high.
for this problem, we ...